THE INAUGURATION of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his second term has all the elements of the old children's tale, The Emperor's New Clothes. Only the most fanatical of courtiers still pretend that the cloak of a supposed election victory and popular mandate can cover the naked reality of a seriously weakened dictator.
In his inaugural address Ahmadinejad focused on foreign policy and said he would make it stronger “with more effective new plans”. “I hereby swear by the almighty God to protect the system of the Islamic Revolution and the constitution, I will spare no effort to safeguard the frontiers of Iran,” he pledged, conjuring up the demons of enemies abroad stirring up counter-revolution. This image is the key element too in the show trial of oppositionists which continued over the weekend after starting just over a week ago with all the Stalinist theatrics of confessions from prisoners who have faced brutality, if not torture, in Ahmadinejad’s jails. Almost 2,000 people are still imprisoned and at least 20 have been killed in prison or demonstrations.
Muhammad-Ali Abtahi, a former vice-president, has reportedly “confessed” that the election on June 12th was “clean” and defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, former president Muhammad Khatami, and powerful cleric Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had all taken an “oath” as they prepared to stage a “velvet revolution”. Abtahi’s family say he has clearly been speaking under duress.
But the crackdown is a sign of the vulnerability of the regime. Despite the official endorsement of his presidency from Iran’s Islamic religious establishment and the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even the country’s leading clerics have made known their differences with the president they propelled into power, notably forcing the resignation of a close ally as vice-president (Ahmadinejad then appointed him chef de cabinet). Under the constitution, he has two weeks to propose a government for ratification in a parliament dominated by conservatives where he may not get an easy ride.
Rifts and rancour among a ruling elite are often telltale signs of an opening that may presage democratic transitions; Iran is no exception. Such rifts, however, make the work of “engaging” a regime far more difficult, not least if it is not clear who rules. For Barack Obama, committed to engagement, and the west it makes for greater uncertainty and difficulties in containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. America’s allies – security council members Britain, France, and Germany – are already talking seriously with her about the next round of much tougher sanctions if Iran has not responded positively by the end of the UN’s 64th General Assembly meeting in New York on September 30th. Israel is still making noises about a military strike.
Premature conflict with Iran over nuclear facilities would, however, play into the hands of Ahmadinejad by providing an excuse to rally the nation around a genuine external threat. Now is a time for cool heads and patience.