It should be difficult to make the announcement of the spending of €48.5 billion seem really dull, but the Government managed it yesterday. €48.5 billion is an enormous pile of money, but in reality the destination of the vast majority of it is entirely predictable, year on year, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
A third of it goes on pay, an eighth on capital spending, and the great bulk of it on retaining existing public services and continuing investment in transport and other projects that have been already announced.
But it is from the tweaking of the discretionary bits that the Government still manages to squeeze a little political theatre each year. Relatively small amounts of money can be used to attain political objectives or, even more vaguely, to make statements about the Government's political priorities.
For example, the increase in Overseas Development Aid announced yesterday represents a minuscule 0.25 per cent of total spending, but is intended to make a significant statement as to the Government's values. (This statement, of course, is intended to be the opposite of the one inferred when Ireland broke its solemn UN Millennium Summit commitment in the first place.)
We will have to wait for Budget Day for this year's theatre. The forecast spending increase arising from yesterday's Estimates is 7 per cent, a relatively cautious amount. Mr Cowen therefore has scope to announce substantial extra funding on Budget Day for various projects.
And announce them he will. The promised childcare package in the Budget will use discretionary Government spending to address one of the most sensitive current political issues.
There will be a substantial package on care for the elderly, and social welfare increases and changes. There may be other surprise announcements too to attempt to derive a bit of positive publicity for a Government badly in need of a lift.
In relation to taxation, there is a growing expectation that Mr Cowen will further broaden the standard rate tax band. The standard rate band was set at €28, 000 in 2002 and there it stayed until last year, as wages continued to rise and more and more taxpayers were pushed into the top rate.
Last year Mr Cowen increased the standard band by 5 per cent to €29, 500, an increase still below the rate of wage increases. Fine Gael and Labour have pointed out for some time that is now a higher proportion of taxpayers paying the top rate than just paying the standard rate - although this ignores the fact that the number paying no tax at all has increased steadily. There will be little surprise if Mr Cowen does not seek to reverse this with a substantial broadening of the standard rate tax band.
The details of the Public Capital Programme have yet to be announced as well. The headline figures in the Estimates show that capital spending in 2006 is due to increase by 4 per cent on 2005, short of the 5 per cent Government target.
With the Estimates showing a relatively modest spending increase, Mr Cowen has scope to announce some unexpected extra injection of capital spending on budget day. The Government was deeply disappointed at the sceptical media and public response to its glossy Transport 21 plans a few weeks ago. Some extra allocation to a transport project or two on Budget Day can't be ruled out as the Government seeks to convince the public that its plan is real.
For this is the Government's second last estimates and budget cycle before it must face the electorate again. In the Estimates there is evidence of a Government carefully addressing the issues on which it is perceived to be weak in an attempt to neutralise them.
Mr Cowen's speech yesterday had a specific section on Value For Money in which he expressed his determination "that every Euro of the taxpayers' money must be well spent". And in another nod at the controversy over high prices and consumer protection, he announced €3 million to set up the National Consumer Agency and €¾ million for the Competition Authority, specifically to allow it increase its number of investigations.
There are other bits and pieces of interest. In his speech Mr Cowen finally made explicit the fact that the Government would not fulfil Fianna Fáil's 2002 election promise to provide 2,000 extra gardaí. The target date for this is now 2008, after the next general election. The Estimates yesterday also confirmed reports that the charge for attending an accident and emergency unit will now increase from €55 to €60.
But in general there were no surprises. Mr Cowen went through the Government's economic triumphs, rehearsing again the account of economic history in which nothing happened before Fianna Fáil and the PDs came to office in 1997. Even the graphs of unemployment, growth and other indicators prepared by the Department of Finance to back up the Minister's thesis had 1997 as year one.
The dullness of yesterday's event is in part a product of the consistent economic success of recent years. Of course the ritual annual Estimates press conference was always more interesting in times of recession. Cuts would be announced, there would be shock and anger. It was dreadful, but not dull.
Times are good now, but this Government, like the Rainbow Coalition before it, is now finding that economic success does not automatically bring widespread voter support.
The replacement of Charlie McCreevy with Brian Cowen as Minister for Finance was the central move in last year's Cabinet reshuffle.
That reshuffle was designed to turn around the Government's poor poll figures and propel them to a third consecutive term in office. Come December 7th, Brian Cowen has to somehow produce an interesting and surprising Budget that will help bring that about.