ANALYSIS:The fact that most TDs felt there was no point in even trying to avoid an electoral tsunami tells its own story, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
BRIAN COWEN survived as leader of Fianna Fáil for the simple reason that most of his TDs have come to the conclusion that it is now far too late to do anything to avoid a crushing election defeat on a scale never suffered by the party in its 85-year history.
That in itself is a remarkable commentary on the state of morale in the party that has been such a dominating presence in Irish political life for so long.
At this stage a change of leader would probably have made little difference to the outcome of the election but the fact that a majority of TDs felt there was no point in even trying to avoid an electoral tsunami tells its own story.
The time to make the change of leader was last autumn when Cowen turned the parliamentary party’s annual gathering into a public relations disaster. By failing to move at that stage all of the potential leaders, Micheál Martin, Mary Hanafin and Brian Lenihan, missed a golden opportunity to sort out the leadership issue and prepare Fianna Fáil for the kind of resolute rearguard action so badly required to prevent inevitable defeat turning into a rout.
However, manoeuvring for position and suspicions about each other’s motives ensured senior figures never came together in a concerted attempt to change the leader. In any case events took their course and the lead-up to the EU-IMF bailout package took everybody’s mind off the leadership issue as the Taoiseach and his Ministers struggled to keep the economy on the rails in the final months of 2010.
A series of dire opinion polls since the Budget reawakened concerns about the leadership and the disclosure of Cowen’s contacts with Seán FitzPatrick brought those concerns to the surface. Cowen responded with the qualities of determination and political skill that he has shown now and again since he became Taoiseach in May 2008. The problem is that those qualities have only been put on occasional display and the public has long since made up its mind about him.
Cowen’s decision to force the issue by putting down a motion of confidence himself and his subsequent conversations with every member of the parliamentary party was enough to persuade a majority of his TDs to rally around as they contemplated the confusion that was likely to arise if they dumped him as party leader while he remained on as Taoiseach.
That Cowen is liked by a majority of his TDs who can see in him qualities not readily appreciated by the general public gave him a base level of support that was always going to be loyal.
Middle-ground TDs were frightened by the uncertainty of removing a leader in such unprecedented circumstances and many of them decided to suppress their misgivings and stick with what they know.
For better or worse the party has now made its choice and there is no going back. The mood in the parliamentary party last night was far removed from the usual one of triumph and excitement that prevails in a winning faction on such an occasion. Instead it was one of quiet resignation as they made ready to face the people.
The main leadership contenders have been affected in different ways by the way the leadership contest unfolded. While Micheál Martin’s move came too late in the day he did show courage in confronting the problem when it would have been easier to do nothing.
Much was made in the media of his decision not to leave the Cabinet when Cowen declined his offer to resign on Sunday but it probably made no great difference to the outcome.
In any case it emerged after the vote last night that Martin had told Cowen that he would be resigning if the Taoiseach survived the motion.
The overriding imperative for Martin and Cowen was to avoid an acrimonious row that could have made things even worse for the party and that is something they both managed to do.
Martin’s handling of the resignation issue helped to avoid acrimony and preserved some unity for the election battle ahead. Cowen’s dignified response to the challenge and his decision to hold a secret ballot also helped to ensure it did not become a bitterly divisive argument.
By demonstrating the courage to offer the challenge, and by keeping the atmosphere calm once he had done so, Martin has put himself in a strong position to mount a bid for the leadership after the election. Of course that assumes he will retain his seat in Cork South Central and at this stage it is not safe to make assumptions about any Fianna Fáil seat.
By contrast with Martin, the other leading contenders, Lenihan and Hanafin, have emerged from the episode with their chances of ultimately succeeding to the leadership diminished rather than enhanced.
Lenihan’s declaration of support for Cowen yesterday prompted fury from some of the TDs who have been agitating for a change of leadership for some time.
Kildare South TD Seán Power initially refused to believe that the Minister for Finance could vote confidence in Cowen, while Kilkenny TD John McGuinness said it was shocking, because it was not what the Minister had been saying to backbenchers for the past year.
Hanafin’s refusal to say anything in public about how she intended to vote on the motion came as a surprise to her supporters in the parliamentary party.
Both she and Lenihan will now have great difficulty in being taken seriously as contenders if they put themselves forward after the election.