THIS GENERAL election is different, in so many ways, to the ones we have seen before. Four days into the contest and the campaign is already beginning to take some shape.
The parties’ economic policies are circumscribed by the deal last November with the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund when the State lost its economic independence. The banking crisis obscures our more serious problem. We have a fiscal deficit of €19 billion a year. Yet, the stage is being set for potentially historic elections for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, perhaps even the Green Party and Sinn Féin and Independents.
The start of the campaign has been so different to others we have experienced. The parties have been slow off the blocks, presenting good photo opportunities, sound-bites and segments of selected policies. The full manifestos of the parties, which would enable voters to distinguish between them, will not be presented until next week, when the leaders’ debates seem set to start.
But already the shape of the election campaign is becoming obvious. Fianna Fáil is attempting cleverly to present itself as a party in Government and Opposition all at the one time. The election of a new leader, Micheál Martin, has given some bounce to the party but clearly not of the magnitude for which it would have hoped. The voters are not being fooled. The party members have been energised to go out on the doorsteps but, for the first time in memory, Fianna Fáil is not running sufficient candidates to achieve a Dáil majority, even if all were elected. The sole strategy now is to get its supporters to turn out to vote and to point out the differences between Fine Gael and Labour.
In truth, Fine Gael and Labour are doing a better job on this front than Fianna Fáil. It is clear after the first few days that both parties believe that the election has been won and the only issue is which one of them will be the larger partner in government. This strategy to compete for votes is understandable. But, it could carry a downside if played out to extremes. Voters are looking for change, a new government, but if the perception is that their favoured coalition parties are annoyingly at one another’s throats in this time of crisis, there could be an unintended “plague on all of your houses” effect.
Eamon Gilmore and the Labour Party find themselves in a particularly difficult position in the campaign. They are competing for the composition of the next government with Fine Gael. They face a challenge also from Sinn Féin and the United Left Alliance grouping of socialists and Independents. They want to retain their perception as the party for public service workers when public service reform is a key issue for the electorate.
The shape of the election is out there but there will be other considerations before it ends. It would seem, at this stage, that it is for Fine Gael and Labour to lose. If Mr Kenny performed half-credibly, could Fine Gael get a final bounce? And could Fianna Fáil benefit from the fear that Sinn Féin and others would be the Opposition party in these times?