A long time coming

It has been a long time coming and somewhat diminished for that

It has been a long time coming and somewhat diminished for that. Yet, history could be in the making on the island of Ireland with the publication of the IRA statement ordering an end to its "war" from 4pm yesterday.

There have been many false dawns, most recently last December, when democratic Ireland was conned by the republican movement and demonstrated to have been so shortly thereafter, with the Northern Bank robbery, the money-laundering and the brutal killing of Robert McCartney. Only time will determine whether the IRA has gone into a new mode.

It will be a seminal day, nonetheless, if the republican movement does what it says it will do now. And there is reason to believe it may. The worldwide war on terror has changed the political climate for Sinn Féin and the IRA in ways that could not have been imagined a few years ago. Suicide bombing has devalued the so-called "armed struggle" as a means of achieving political aims. And there is less willingness among the people of Ireland - nationalist and unionist - to tolerate ambiguity on paramilitarism, money-laundering and criminality any longer.

There is no doubt that yesterday's IRA statement is different to those issued before. For one thing, the republican movement is in total control of the commitments made. It is not dependent on any government or party to honour them. The republican movement is speaking to, and for, itself without any guaranteed parachute into the political process. And, to that end, the IRA leadership has ordered an end to the armed campaign and the dumping of all arms. It has instructed its members not to engage in "any other activities whatsoever" - a phrase, one presumes, to cover criminality - and to operate from now on through exclusively peaceful means.

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This seems to be the most positive and least ambiguous statement ever issued by the IRA's leadership. There is less republican theology. The language is more clear. The corollary is that the words can only have one meaning. The IRA seems to be committing the republican movement to an end to the IRA as an army and an end to its ancillary activities, like the murder of Mr McCartney, knee-cappings, robberies and thuggery.

Some will argue that the statement is unclear about the IRA's new mode. What is the IRA, which presumably still remains in existence, now? Yesterday's statement would suggest it is not about to disappear. Will recruitment come to an end? Is the IRA committed to the new dispensation in Northern Ireland whose status can only change if a majority so decides? Are the IRA and Sinn Féin signing up to the criminal justice system? What is Sinn Féin's commitment to policing? Many other questions can be raised.

But, for all that, a defining moment in Irish politics will be reached if yesterday's words are translated into actions. Then, and only then, can it be put validly to the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party that a new government should be formed in Northern Ireland.