After the wave of optimism engendered by the Belfast Agreement, the IRA statement ruling out any decommissioning of its weapons appears to darken the hopeful landscape in which a power-sharing executive, inclusive of Sinn Fein, might operate in Northern Ireland. On the face of it, this is a cynical, ill-timed statement which can only make more difficult the task of those who are persuaders for peace and reconciliation. It seeks to look both ways at once; it says that the Agreement marks a "significant development" but also that "it clearly falls short of presenting a solid basis for a lasting peace". More ominously, it now appears that the IRA and Sinn Fein do not accept the forthcoming referendums in the Republic and Northern Ireland as a legitimate exercise in national self-determination or a democratic and valid decision of the Irish people. On RTE's News at One programme yesterday, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin of Sinn Fein parroted the IRA's analysis ". . . .This exercise, two separate referendums, - one organised by the British government - does not constitute national self-determination". These are repugnant sentiments which run counter, not only to the word of the Agreement but also to the spirit of the Hume-Adams dialogue in which Sinn Fein invested so much energy. They are a reminder of the essentially anti-democratic, fascist nature of Republican activism, whether IRA or Sinn Fein.
The reiteration of the IRA's unyielding stance on decommissioning, while not entirely unexpected, is extremely unhelpful at this time. As Unionists describe it - and who could disagree with the analysis - it raises the spectre of Sinn Fein participating in the executive of Northern Ireland and securing the early release of prisoners without the IRA handing over any weapons. This is the scenario which will cut the ground out from under Mr Trimble as he seeks to buttress support for the Agreement.
Senator George Mitchell yesterday moved to underline some of the realities of decommissioning now that the Agreement is in place. The process, he said, must begin as soon as possible and must be as complete as possible. We must not allow the men of violence to exercise control over the future of Northern Ireland. The IRA/Sinn Fein axis cannot escape the reality that decommissioning is an essential component of the Agreement. It may be that the issue was exploited in the past but the Agreement has transformed the situation. Sinn Fein has already recognised this by its tentative support for much of the Agreement and by its decision to allow a vote on participation in the new Northern Assembly at its resumed ardfheis shortly. But the party cannot adopt an a la carte approach towards the democratic process.
Both governments have been muted in their response to the statement. They seem anxious to cross each bridge in the peace process as they come to it - instead of allowing any single issue to derail progress. This is a pragmatic approach.
It may be that the IRA statement is no more than an attempt to assuage some of the backwoodsmen in the Republican movement as Sinn Fein pushes on. Those who believe in democracy however can play at the Provisionals' own game. They can encourage them to vote "Yes" for an endorsement of the Agreement. And then, if they seek election to the new assembly without making progress on decommissioning, beat them off the field on polling day, denying them any place in a new executive. They must be taught that the strategy of the armalite and the ballot-box has its limits.