History is in the making today, one way or the other. When the politicians meet in Belfast at the opening of the all party talks, they have a chance to begin the long and sober process of shaping a new future for this island, in which the deep divisions between the communities can gradually be eliminated. On the other hand, they can show that they have not drawn the lessons of a bloody and divisive past and do not have the courage or vision necessary to save future generations from the misery inflicted by dissension. That too will be a kind of history, even if it repeats the patterns that must eventually be destroyed.
There can be absolutely no doubt about which option has the massive support of the people, north and south of the Border. The Irish Times/MRBI poll carried out last week showed that Sinn Fein's demand to enter the talks without preconditions was supported by less than a quarter of respondents in this State; a united Ireland has also ceased to be a majority aspiration. In the North, according to the Coopers and Lybrand poll for the Sunday Tribune, all but 3 per cent of respondents, including most supporters of Sinn Fein, want the ceasefire restored, and over 60 per cent of the Catholic respondents want decommissioning during the talks. The demand for peace is unquestionable, and there is some evidence of willingness to compromise.
In any normal political set up, the job of the politicians is to translate the wishes of the people into practical agreements. That is the purpose of the all party talks. Yet the events of the past weeks and months offer little encouragement that the political leaders are ready to rise to the magnitude of the task. The poll published in the Sunday Tribune yesterday underlines the difficulties that lie ahead: in spite of the general support for the abandonment of violence, there is no sign of consensus on the ingredients of a political settlement. That should give no comfort to any of the political parties, however: none of their traditional policies - whether a united Ireland among Catholics or majority rule, integration with the United Kingdom or independence for the North among Protestants enjoys widespread support.
Small wonder, then, that the talks open in a mood which can be characterised as one of modest expectations. There is considerable doubt among ordinary voters about the efficacy of politics: too many initiatives have gone astray, too little new thought has been allowed to enter the thinking chain, there has been too little real debate about options. Both the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP have given evidence of readiness to confront many of the basic issues, the Alliance Party is a bastion of good sense but has not gained electorally, the two loyalist linked unionist parties are surprisingly constructive and the Women's Coalition is a new voice for reason. Any hope of a successful outcome must rest on the positive elements in the mix coalescing and outmanoeuvring the negative ones.
It is easy to focus inordinately on the immediate difficulties. An IRA ceasefire is essential, not only to make it possible for Sinn Fein to attend, but to create the conditions in which fruitful negotiations are most likely. Mr Gerry Adams, on the other hand, clearly sees the disadvantages of being excluded. The hostile attitude of the unionists towards Mr George Mitchell's role as chairman is an equal threat at the outset which the two governments must quickly deal with if they are to maintain their credibility. Mr Mitchell is a more knowledgeable outsider in what is being undertaken than Mr David Wilshire, the Tory backbencher, whose criticisms show that he knows nothing about the history of the last 84 years. There is a chance now to abandon that historical trend and start on a new one. It would be criminal to let it be lost.