Without support from all political parties we will continue to lag behind on renewable energy, writes Breda O'Brien
SO WHAT are the chances of a carbon levy in this year's budget? The words "snowball" and "hell" spring to mind. The question was kicked to the Commission on Taxation, which is not due to report until 2009, so the Government is likely to plead that it could not possibly pre-empt the commission's findings.
A carbon levy - a tax designed to cut people's consumption of fossil fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - aims to alter behaviour by affecting people's pockets.
Although the reality of climate change has been accepted on an intellectual level, we still have not accepted that tackling it means radically altering our behaviour.
If it becomes more expensive to buy fossil fuels, previous experience with the plastic bag levy suggests that we will start consuming less and looking for alternatives.
Given that no levy ever inspires rapturous applause from the public, Fianna Fáil is likely to procrastinate for as long as possible. It will be interesting to watch just how long the junior partners in the Government will put up with a carbon levy being long-fingered.
Unlike, say, Bertie's prodigious luck with horses, the carbon levy could become a deal breaker.
If it does not materialise in the budget in 2009 how long will the Greens be able to maintain any kind of credibility?
Oddly, if Fianna Fáil could have been persuaded, a bad news budget might have been a very good place to introduce a carbon tax and not just because it will be a glum political winter with or without it.
The conventional wisdom is that the last thing the economy needs is something that will raise the price of fuel still further. However, according to the EU Commission's Cometr Report, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland all found that the introduction of a carbon levy had a positive impact on GDP.
Just as we have failed to internalise that climate change needs radical action, we have also failed to see that any economy that wishes to remain competitive will have to deal sooner rather than later with the twin challenges of climate change and peak oil.
Where there is a financial incentive to reduce consumption, businesses also reduce their costs and become more competitive.
A carbon levy should be introduced to replace revenue from taxes like PRSI rather than as an additional tax that takes more income out of people's pockets. In other words, something positive like working would be taxed less and something negative like emissions would be taxed more.
At a recent question-and-answer session hosted by Dublin Friends of the Earth with representatives from the political parties and chaired by Harry McGee of The Irish Times, it was clear only Senator Dan Boyle of the Greens was sold on the idea of a levy.
Seán Fleming of Fianna Fáil repeated like a mantra that there was more to life than a carbon tax. Richard Bruton of Fine Gael worried about disproportionately penalising people locked into fossil fuel-gobbling homes. Joanna Tuffy of Labour interspersed party political broadcasts on behalf of Labour with cautious support, but felt there were other measures that should be put in place first.
To be fair to the politicians, we do have lousy insulation in most homes and completely inadequate public transport.
Fuel poverty is another real issue. One in four households headed by an unemployed person and one in five headed by a lone parent is already unable to adequately heat their homes. Age Action Ireland has warned that it has come to the stage where many elderly people are having to choose between food and fuel.
Combat Poverty has suggested that if revenue levies on carbon were used to support measures like increased fuel allowances, then negative impacts on vulnerable people could be prevented.
The politicians are wrong in suggesting that tackling problems like public transport and housing standards have to happen first.
Given the gravity of climate change, a carbon tax and other measures should be happening together.
It was not so much the concerns that they raised but the palpable lack of urgency that was troubling.
Richard Bruton said Fine Gael's commitment was shown by the fact that Enda Kenny was chairing the policy committee on climate change. However, he also said there was little need for immediate action to produce a document given that there was no election on the horizon.
He also ruled out any kind of Tallaght strategy on climate change. Fine Gael's policy was not to provide comfort to any government but to encourage the public to vote it out, and replace it with a Fine Gael-led government that would introduce better policies on climate change.
Joanna Tuffy seemed more concerned with knocking the Greens for not being a real socialist party than with supporting measures to combat climate change.
Seán Fleming, a decent man who was commendably honest, nonetheless epitomised the fact that most of Fianna Fáil still does not get it. Climate change is one issue among others for most politicians, rather than being the biggest challenge facing humanity.
We are humming and hawing and are in danger of being left behind. The Institute for International and European Affairs is launching a major report on Monday that warns that unless urgent action is taken on climate change, long-term damage to the economy will result. It says that given EU proposals to reduce carbon emissions by as much as 30 per cent by 2020, we have no option but to reduce in the most fundamental manner our over-dependency on fossil fuel.
Although the ESB has undergone a remarkable culture shift towards renewable energy, so many other issues also need to be tackled.
Without support from all the political parties, and "buy-in"from the public, we will continue to lag behind on renewable energy.
A carbon levy could have been the kick in a tender part that we need right now.