ZIMBABWE:TALKS TO resolve Zimbabwe's political crisis were on the brink of collapse last night as Robert Mugabe refused to surrender control of the government, despite losing the country's last credible election, writes Chris McGreal.
South Africa's president Thabo Mbeki, who has been mediating the negotiations, was making a final push to reach agreement before heading back to Pretoria.
But the two sides remained far apart as opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai continued to insist that democracy be respected. Mr Mbeki arrived on Sunday. His aides predicted an agreement within the day in the hope that a new government and parliament would be installed this week, permitting Mr Mbeki to claim a success at a regional heads of government summit in Johannesburg this weekend.
But although Mr Tsvangirai had endorsed a plan for Mr Mugabe to remain president with a largely ceremonial function, the opposition said it became apparent Zimbabwe's ruler for the 28 years since independence did not intend to give up power.
Zanu-PF is trying to reach a deal with the leader of a small breakaway Movement for Democratic Change faction, Arthur Mutambara, whose 10 seats in parliament hold the balance of power. Mr Mutambara's statements in recent days indicate that he is receptive to Mr Mugabe's overtures.
But even if Mr Mugabe were to draw Mr Mutambara in, and then claim to have formed a coalition government with the opposition, it is unlikely to open the door to the foreign money needed to stabilise Zimbabwe's wrecked economy, collapsing under the weight of hyper inflation.
Human Rights Watch yesterday said the state-orchestrated campaign of violence that crushed support for Mr Tsvangirai in June's presidential run-off election, after he won the first round of voting three months earlier, had claimed the lives of at least 163 opposition activists and supporters. The group said 32 people have been murdered in political violence since the election.
Mr Mbeki could score a political coup if a deal is reached before a weekend regional summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) group of countries. He has been under fire for not being tough with Mr Mugabe, a policy he says would aggravate tension.
"I suspect that long before we get to the summit there will be some decision coming out of Zimbabwe," Aziz Pahad, South Africa's deputy foreign minister, told reporters in Pretoria. He said there was no set deadline for a deal.
"If there is still more time needed for more consultations that shouldn't lead us to despair. The fact that the parties are continuing to talk is a positive aspect."
Investors are likely to remain cautious even if there is a breakthrough, seeking reassurances that a new government can rescue what was once one of Africa's most promising economies and safeguard their money, financial analysts say. Nic Borain, a political consultant at HSBC, said Zanu-PF and the opposition have few options. "I don't foresee a total breakdown where there would essentially be war on the streets or at least very high levels of repression and exclusion," he said.
"I don't think they [the talks] will remain on the rocks, because I think all the parties eventually have no way out of it other than talking to each other."
All eyes may soon be on Mr Mutambara. - (Guardian service and Reuters)