The middle ground in the Ulster Unionist Council had narrowed to between 45 and 70 delegates, party sources said last night. The undecided delegates were described as "people who don't like voting against their leader but have deep and real concerns and are very, very confused".
It was also claimed that as many as 10 per cent of the 871 delegates may decide not to attend the meeting. The reasons for their absence would vary from other pressing commitments to distaste for the growing bitterness and rancour in the party.
The likelihood of a sizeable number of abstentions has made the UUC system for nominating substitutes a focus of intense interest by the competing factions.
The admission slip sent to delegates provides for the nomination of a substitute, although the form must be countersigned by the secretary of the delegate's constituency association or, as the case may be, affiliated body (e.g. Young Unionists or Orange Order).
Between now and Saturday, party activists from each side will be engaged in an intense drive to secure the maximum number of substitutes. In some cases, constituency association secretaries may be able to choose the substitutes themselves. "It's absolutely crucial that those slips fall into the right hands", a prominent party member said.
There was said to be a "tussle" to get the "right people" to stand in for absentees. Some constituency secretaries are expected to arrive with a collection of blank slips at the Waterfront Hall, where potential substitutes will be on hand and can be "signed in".
"Not a single vote is going to go to waste here", a party activist said. Victory could go to the side which had the "organisational edge".
Mr David Trimble has been making discreet visits to different parts of the North to meet groups of delegates. He spoke at the Dunadry Inn, near Antrim town, on Monday night, with 85 to 90 delegates in attendance. A spokesman for the Trimble campaign said that the response to the leader was positive and claimed that he had persuaded many who were undecided on the way into the meeting.
The meetings are not being announced in advance because of fears that anti-Trimble protests will be mounted by the Democratic Unionist Party. The leader addressed a group at Craigavon, in his own constituency of Upper Bann, on Tuesday night. Last night he was said to be "west of the Bann".
The spokesman for Mr Trimble refused to comment on suggestions from the No lobby that a motion involving a time limit for decommissioning, as a condition of UUP participation in a reconstituted Executive, was under consideration, provided there could be a guarantee that the IRA would not withdraw its statement of May 6th.
There was an expectation in the No camp that what was described as a "wee bone" would be provided tomorrow by the Northern Secretary to Mr John Taylor on the issue of the RUC name, which would probably allow him to declare support for Mr Trimble.
There were divided views in the No lobby about the political value of Mr Jeffrey Donaldson's declaration that he had an alternative unionist strategy to Mr Trimble's. A leading No delegate said there was a "crude game" going on in which the two sides were trying to "scare" delegates over the likely consequences of voting one way or the other.
Mr Trimble told reporters last night it was becoming clearer that there was "no practical alternative" coming from the No camp.