Croatia could face a period of political paralysis, hampering efforts to tackle the migration crisis and fix a fragile economy, after elections left the main two parties neck-and-neck and gave the role of kingmaker to a rising reformist force.
Sunday's parliamentary vote gave 59 of 151 seats to the opposition HDZ, a conservative party with strong nationalist and populist streaks, ahead of the ruling centre-left Social Democrats with 56 seats.
The balance of power rests with Most (“Bridge”), a three-year-old party that took 19 seats on pledges to break Croatia’s traditional duopoly and boost business by overhauling its bloated bureaucracy and public sector.
The HDZ had expected to win more decisively after a campaign heavy with appeals to patriotism and promises to take a tough line on a refugee crisis that has seen almost 350,000 migrants cross Croatia since mid-September.
The Social Democrats appear to have received a late boost from prime minister Zoran Milanovic's refusal to mimic the tough anti-migrant rhetoric of the HDZ, neighbouring Hungary and other central European states, and from the Croatian economy's return to weak growth for the first time since 2008.
Both parties were swift to make overtures towards Most. "The victory brought us responsibility to lead our country, which is in a difficult situation," said Tomislav Karamarko, the HDZ leader and former Croatian intelligence chief.
“Whoever wants to fight with us for the quality of life in Croatia is welcome,” he declared.
Mr Milanovic, premier for four years, said the Social Democrats’ campaign had been made harder by Europe’s worst refugee crisis since the second World War, and he criticised the anti-migrant “hate speech and hate mongering” of the HDZ.
Despite taking fewer seats than the HDZ, Mr Milanovic staked a claim for his Social Democrats to continue in power: “Croatia has voted for change…We cannot do it alone and we need partners.” he said.
The Social Democrats have better relations than the HDZ with several small regional and ethnic-minority parties in parliament, but some sort of alliance with Most seems essential to secure a majority for either main party.
Most says it will only back a government that is committed to cutting Croatia’s debt burden and reforming its sprawling and costly public sector – moves that would prove unpopular among those who face redundancy, and would shake up a system of clientelism in which a vast array of jobs are traded for political support.
"I can't believe that either of the big parties will agree with our reform proposals," said Most's leader Bozo Petrov. "For each of those reforms we would set deadlines and if deadlines were not met, we would demand a parliamentary no-confidence vote." .
Political analyst Davor Gjenero warned of the dangers of a protracted period of political uncertainty. “The migrant crisis will get worse, economic problems will surface again, while at the same time Croatia lacks a strong public administration to assure the state functions while the executive power is not working,” he said.
