The global economic crisis has become the biggest near-term US security concern, sowing instability in a quarter of the world's countries and threatening destructive trade wars, US intelligence agencies reported.
The director of national intelligence's annual threat assessment also said al Qaeda's leadership had been weakened over the last year. But security in Afghanistan had deteriorated and Pakistan had to gain control over its border areas before the situation could improve. "The financial crisis and global recession are likely to produce a wave of economic crises in emerging market nations over the next year," said the report.
A wave of "destructive protectionism" was possible as countries find they cannot export their way out of the slump.
"Time is our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to US strategic interests," the report said.
The report represents the findings of all 16 US intelligence agencies and serves as a leading security reference for policymakers and Congress. Besides reviewing adversaries, it also considered this year the security impact of issues including climate change and the economy.
It said a quarter of countries have already experienced at least "low-level" instability, such as government changes, linked to the economy.
There have been anti-government protests in Europe and the former Soviet Union, and growing economic strains in Africa and Latin America, the national intelligence director, Admiral Dennis Blair, told Congress in delivering the report.
"Instability can loosen the fragile hold that many developing countries have on law and order, which can spill out in dangerous ways to the international community," Blair told the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Steps such as devaluations, tariffs and export subsidies were possible from countries desperate to boost economies.
Reuters