THE primary focus of most commentators on the two earlier opinion polls this year was the composition and potential destination of the undecided electors. This, with the growing intensity of the political choreography during and since the Dunnes tribunal, shows the battle for this crucial element has begun.
The outcome between the two coalition options is likely to be close, but it is now universally accepted that the day will be won again by whichever party or parties succeed in winning over the undecided.
Before addressing the current survey in detail, a brief review of the last six general elections since the adaptation of the current 166 seat Dail illustrates the level of vacillation which has applied in the past. In 1981, and in the two elections in 1982, the floaters were distributed almost exclusively between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
In February, 1987, slightly more than a year after their establishment, the Progressive Democrats obtained over 200,000 first preference votes (12 per cent), mainly at the expense of Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail, in that order.
In 1989, a further variation emerged. Labour recaptured all its November, 1982, support; Fine Gael made a partial recovery and Fianna Fail held its 1987 vote. The composite switch was at the PDs' expense, and the party dropped by over six points. The 1992 poll saw Labour more than double its 1989 vote to 19 per cent at the expense of all other major parties.
My overall observation on this current survey, undertaken over last weekend against a background of heavy media interest, is that the electorate at large - and ipso facto the still heavy volume who remain undecided - is adopting a wait and see attitude in what many apparently accept as a transitional prelude to the formal campaign.
Many times recently I have expressed the opinion that voters who are now undecided are likely to distribute their votes across a number of parties - perhaps four or five - in the election, and my reading of today's figures confirms this viewpoint.
I hold this view in spite of the fact that one major party - Fine Gael - has lost some of its, soft support of the previous opinion poll in March and is now on the same core level as in January. The significant point is that Fianna Fail has not profited by this - the main movement being that the undecided have increased by two points back to the January level, while Independents and Labour have improved marginally.
Fianna Fail on 43 per cent, as in March, remains below its traditional preelection level, excluding the actual 1992 campaign, when it was consistently on 40 per cent. But, with the Progressive Democrats holding firm to their 8 per cent of the previous poll, that coalition scenario tends to be favourable. However, a strong wait and see message remains.
Fine Gael, on 26 per cent, while four points down on its March figure, remains satisfactorily positioned in that its support remains higher than at any time over the four years to December last.
The Labour Party will be satisfied, at this stage, with 12 per cent, which represents a gradual upturn since January, while the Green Party and Democratic Left, on 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively, remain satisfactorily consistent.
Because of the election's proximity, the question on current voting intentions was slightly modified to take account of Independents. It read: "If the general election was held today, to which party or Independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?" In the survey, Independents emerged at 4 per cent, compared with 3 per cent in the previous poll in March. The Workers' Party and Sinn Fein remain at 1 per cent each.
Current satisfaction ratings reflect noticeable shifts since March, with those for the Government, John Bruton and Dick Spring down. And, although Mary Harney remains in first place overall, her personal rating is also down. Both Bertie Ahern and Proinsias De Rossa are holding firm.
Voter reaction to the two coalition options is identical to that of the January opinion poll, when the differential was 12 per cent in favour of Fianna Fail/PDs - this having dropped to 6 per cent in March. The respective figures FF/PD 44 per cent and FG/Lab/DL 32 per cent are almost identical to the respective party core support levels.
It is relevant to keep in mind that even at this relatively late stage the figures should not be taken as predictive.
Firstly, the relevant MRBI question always relates to the hypothetical ("If the general election was held today ...?). Secondly, there remains a heavy volume still undecided.
But, should the current figures reflect the outcome in first preference terms, the floating vote would be distributed across Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, the Progressive Democrats, the Green Party and Independents, since all are currently positioned above my estimated basic core support levels.
Finally, national opinion polls measure first preference voting intentions on the day, and this is not a reliable exercise to attempt to predict the number of seats likely to be won by each party. Normally, not more than 25 per cent of Dail seats are won on first preferences, while the ratio of seats to first preference votes is not consistent for each party from election to election.
. The poll was described as "disappointing" last night by the Minister for Justice, Mrs Owen.
She said she had no doubt that the Dunnes Payments tribunal has had an effect on the way people are looking at Fine Gael. The party happened to be the one involved in the tribunal, and if it had concerned somebody other than Mr Ben Dunne, then other parties might have been involved.
"Everybody knows that's how political parties in this country have funded themselves. It just happened that Fianna Fail weren't in the limelight, or the Progressive Democrats; next time round they might be," she said on RTE radio.
The Minister said the poll would have no bearing on the date for the general election.