British and US special forces were combing Baghdad for members of Saddam Hussein's inner circle yesterday with signs that crucial informants were surfacing, according to those familiar with the operation, write Oliver Burkeman, in Washington and Richard Norton-Taylor, in London.
But there appeared to be disagreement between US and British intelligence about the fate of Saddam after Monday night's strike on a restaurant in the Mansour residential neighbourhood.
US agencies, including the Pentagon, insist they had solid information that Saddam had entered the building and had not left before the bombs hit. But last night British intelligence agencies believed Saddam was alive, possibly hiding in north-east Baghdad.
While the US sought in public to play down the importance of Saddam's fate, the hunt behind the scenes was growing. The next few days will be crucial in the search for the officials closest to him, with some expected to make last-ditch escape efforts, perhaps to Tikrit, according to a former special forces soldier in contact with the current operation.
Men such as Abed Hamid Mahmoud, Saddam's powerful personal secretary, and vice-president Taha Yassin Ramadan would "realise their crimes are so dramatic that there's no deal they can cut", the former special forces soldier said.
But the ranks immediately beneath them, including information minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, who did not show up for work yesterday, were being considered prime candidates for "helping us out with information in order to survive".
Monday's attempted "decapitation strike" was at least the third of the conflict. All hit targets where Saddam had been recently present, the former soldier said, which would make the inner circle fearful for their safety.
Of the handful of senior officials at the top of the coalition's list, only Ali Hassan al-Majid, known as "Chemical Ali", is presumed dead, but even that was disputed yesterday by Mr Ahmad Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Congress, who said he had received unconfirmed reports that he had escaped.
While the celebrations and looting in Baghdad could encourage more informants, one intelligence source said there were fears it might make the task harder, since Saddam's inner circle could go to ground and stop using methods of communication that intelligence services could monitor.
According to some reports all intelligence "chatter" from the leadership has ceased.
Mr Patrick Garrett, of the defence and security thinktank Globalsecurity.org, warned the lack of coalition presence around Tikrit meant it was impossible to say how many of the senior personnel might be based there.
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of two main Kurdish opposition groups, said on Tuesday that Saddam, his sons Uday and Qusay, and senior aides had moved to Tikrit, where they could disappear into a maze of tunnels believed to be accessible from presidential compounds.
Other reports say Qusay is dead and Saddam and Uday are in Mosul. Al-Jazeera's Moscow correspondent, meanwhile, quoted a senior Russian intelligence officer as saying a US-Iraqi ceasefire was being planned, with Saddam's safe departure from the capital one of its elements. Still other reports - dismissed by the US - suggested he might be in Syria.
In the coming days, Mr Garrett said, "some in his inner circle are going to begin to fear less Saddam and more the people who have a bone to pick with them. The central question for them may be, are they going to get the chair, or a prison cell."
US and British jets bombed sites around Tikrit yesterday as coalition commanders stepped up preparations for a final assault on Saddam's home town to prevent him using it as the scene for a last stand.
Large numbers of Republican Guard forces dug in around Tikrit were being "actively engaged" by air strikes and special forces, coalition commanders said, amid clear signs that the town was being softened up in advance of a ground offensive.
- (Guardian Service)