THE OPTIONS: The UN-backed Annan plan:In April UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan proposed a six-point peace plan which was accepted by both Damascus and opposition forces. It includes a general ceasefire, a call to withdraw troops from affected urban areas and to allow access to humanitarians. It also calls for a Syrian-led political process to resolve the wider crisis.
A UN monitoring mission, which includes members of the Irish Defence Forces, was deployed to make sure both sides abide by their ostensible agreements but violence has continued.
“We are at a tipping point,” Annan said in Damascus this week as he urged Assad to adhere to the plan, which has acted as an international diplomatic rallying point.
Some observers believe international outrage over the Houla massacre last week could result in the regime finally cleaving to Annan’s plan but others have declared the initiative futile as the bloodshed shows no sign of abating.
Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Eamon Gilmore has described the Annan plan as the only option: “We must all work to support his efforts, as there is no other plan available to prevent a complete descent into even greater violence.”
The military option:
Despite increasing talk of possible military intervention, and calls from some elements of the Syrian opposition for air strikes against the regime, there is no sign of consensus similar to what took shape in relation to Libya last year.
The Obama administration has said further militarisation of the crisis is “not the right action” but French president François Hollande has said military intervention cannot be ruled out – if it has UN Security Council support.
Those wary of direct intervention point to Syria’s complex demographic make-up and its position as a focal point for regional interests including Iran.
Some analysts talk of a “neo-mujahideen” strategy in which opposition forces could be armed and supported as happened during the battle against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already supplied opposition forces with weapons, and Turkey has provided training and equipment.
Any attempt to increase such assistance to the opposition, or create safe zones for them near Syria’s border with Turkey, is complicated by the fragmented and decentralised nature of those forces.
Other diplomatic efforts:
Months of diplomatic and economic pressure including sanctions have had little impact on the Assad regime, and the ratcheting up of diplomatic efforts in the wake of the Houla massacre has yet to bear fruit.
A number of countries, including the US, France, the UK, Italy, Germany, Spain and Turkey, announced they were expelling Syrian diplomats this week in a co-ordinated move designed to isolate the regime even further.
Another tool in the diplomatic push is the group known as Friends of Syria, an alliance of countries, including Ireland, formed after Russia and China vetoed tougher sanctions against Damascus at the UN. The group will hold its third meeting in July in Paris.
The French president and other leaders have again called on Russia to use its influence on Assad, a longtime ally whose regime Moscow continues to arm.
Russia, for whom Syria serves as a crucial foothold in the region, has condemned the Houla massacre but it has also accused countries seeking regime change in Syria of exploiting the killings as a pretext for military intervention.
One proposal gaining currency in recent weeks is the so-called “Yemen model”, a reference to the Gulf-negotiated settlement that led to the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in that country.
Under such a plan, the Assad family and their inner circle would agree to leave Syria in return for immunity.
“The success of the plan hinges on Russia, one of Mr Assad’s staunchest allies, which has strongly opposed his removal,” noted a report by London-based think-tank Chatham House.
Sceptics also caution that Syria’s internal dynamics, including the power cleavages in its religiously and ethnically diverse population, make such a plan more problematic.