Unseasonal monsoon weather conceals the fact that eastern population centres are only one drought away from water rationing, writes Harry McGee
IF THERE was an Olympic event for bad timing, Dublin City Council would win the gold medal.
It has been running radio adverts this summer warning people against watering lawns when we have been swamped with water. That said, this summer's monsoon is not typical of weather patterns in the future, according to climate change expert Prof John Sweeney of NUI Maynooth.
"Despite the last two summers, we expect summers to be drier," he says. "Because of that, water will become more of a premium product."
In Spain, water shortages have already caused political rows. Andalucia in the south, with its overdevelopment and huge tourist industry, is now dependent on water being transferred from the arid north - which has caused political tension.
There is a belief in Ireland that water is in abundant supply. Not so, says Conor Murphy, also of NUI Maynooth and an expert in the hydrological impacts of climate change.
"Ireland is not necessarily a water-rich country," says Mr Murphy. "Where water is plentiful is not where the population is. Also, we do not have very significant ground-water. A lot of our water is derived from surface water and that's very vulnerable to changes in rainfall. If we have a dry summer, it can cause problems."
Prof Sweeney puts the geographical mismatch into context. "We think of water as a birthright, but there are huge disparities between the south and the east on the one hand and the west and the north on the other.
"Water resources are 76,000 litres per capita per day in the west and the north whereas in the south and east, it's 7,000 litres per capita per day, or less than one-tenth. Obviously, there's a much larger population in the east and most of the rain is in the north and the west.
"As population increases in the eastern part of the island, it will accentuate the need for water," he said.
That problem is apparent in Dublin. Over the past eight years, demand has increased by 2 per cent per year, with similar increases expected in the future.
That has stretched capacity almost to the limit. In a statement, Dublin City Council said: "Balance between supply and demand is very finely balanced. The weather this year ensured that a summer peak in demand did not materialise."
The net message is that the bigger eastern population centres are only one drought away from severe water rationing.
Mr Murphy has studied 10 water catchment areas throughout the country and found some evidence of lower yields, particularly in the east.
"If you look at the Rye water catchment area in Co Kildare that flows into the Liffey, there will be reductions in summer stream flows of up to 60 per cent by the middle of the century," he says.
The twin pressures - dwindling resources and an increased demand from population growth - makes water a premium product that could be considered analogous to oil.
"Just from population growth alone, Dublin city needs to find alternative sources of supply. It will need an extra 350 million litres a day to be brought to Dublin by 2015," Mr Murphy says.
The council has been investigating options to address that problem. Infrastructural investments would be needed, the scale of which have not been seen in Ireland before and all of which have downsides.
The most ambitious plan is a desalination plant that converts sea water into drinking water. That would be very costly and be a high emitter of gases. Another option would be to extract water from ground-water in north Dublin.
The third option involves extracting water from the Shannon, using interbasin transfer. However, this option is already being opposed by a group called the Shannon Protection Alliance.
One practical partial solution is dealing with extensive leakages in water pipes. A 1996 report showed leakage levels in Dublin were running at 40 per cent.
In the 12 years since then, they have been reduced but only to 30 per cent. Now the council says it will embark on a "major project" over the next five years to address that problem.
The biggest political headache relates to charges. Ireland has an EU exemption from imposing domestic water charges.
But how realistic and equitable is a system that imposes no sanctions on households that waste water?
No political party officially supports water charges, but Fine Gael says that it is one option being considered as part of its review of local government policy. Labour and Sinn Féin both oppose water charges for domestic use.
How realistic is that reluctance? For Prof Sweeney, water charges make sense and will become an imperative in time.
"If a resource like water becomes scarcer and demand becomes greater, it is inevitable that charging will be introduced," he says.