PRESSURE on Liberian warlords by Nigeria's military ruler, General Sani Abacha, has raised hopes that the latest peace deal may succeed where more than a dozen have failed, analysts said yesterday.
"Abacha put a lot of pressure on them at the Abuja meeting. They have to agree while they are here, I just hope it lasts when they get back to Liberia," said one West African diplomat.
Rival Liberian warlords promised on Wednesday to disarm this month. This followed marathon talks in the Nigerian capital with Gen Abacha, chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The group has been trying to end the six year war.
"Abacha wants to be seen to sort out Liberia, and is not going to want to back down," another diplomat said.
The warlords, who have been threatened by regional leaders with sanctions which could included war crimes tribunal, said the disarmament should be completed by September to allow for a general election.
"I am advocating an election in December. I am a candidate so I will be interested to see there is complete disarmament in September before elections," Mr Charles Taylor, the chief warlord, told a news conference at which he and his rivals jointly announced disarmament and an immediate ceasefire.
"We decided among ourselves to disarm," said Mr Alhaji Kromah of the ULIMO-K faction. "No (person) or group forced us to embark on disarmament."
Mr Taylor's National Patriotic Front of Liberia launched the war in 1989. A Nigerian dominated West African force, ECOMOG, intervened in 1990 but failed to stop it.
More than a dozen peace accords have failed. The fighting has killed more than 150,000 people, rendered half of Liberia's 2.6 million people refugees, and ruined its economy.
The latest accord was brokered by Gen Abacha last August and had generally held until factional fighting broke out in the capital, Monrovia, in April.
Some peace has been re established, with the 10,000 strong ECOMOG in control again. But at stake is disarming 60,000 fighters, for which the peacekeepers have sought international assistance.
The Abuja accord created a six man council of state grouping all the faction leaders, with Professor Wilton Sankawulo as chairman.
The faction leaders said they would withdraw to pre Abuja positions and then turn over those positions to ECOMOG.
The ethnic Krahn leader, Mr George Boley, who is a member of the six man transitional ruling council, restated his position that elect ions would not be feasible without complete disarmament.
Prof Sankawulo said they would return to Abuja within three weeks, when the election date would be announced.