CHANCELLOR ANGELA Merkel faced her main challenger in a lukewarm television debate last night that turned into an unintentional advertisement for the re-election of German’s cross-party grand coalition.
Two weeks before the general election, and after four years rubbing shoulders at the cabinet table, Dr Merkel and her Social Democrat rival Frank Walter Steinmeier struggled to differentiate themselves from each other.
Instead they joined forces to defend their record in power and, in the end, came across as representatives of two wings of one centrist party rather than leaders of two rival political camps.
“I’m here to call for a new government because grand coalitions are not good for a democracy and should not become normality,” said Dr Merkel.
“In this difficult situation I think we need CDU in the next government.” She came to last night’s debate with a comfortable 12 point poll lead, the incumbent bonus and four years’ experience on the international stage. But she appeared irritated throughout the debate; cameras caught her making unfortunate faces at several points during the evening.
Some 61 per cent of Germans say they would be happy to see Angela Merkel return as chancellor but, last night, she learned that her popularity alone will not be enough to secure her return to power.
Opinion polls show that support has peaked for Dr Merkel’s preferred coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), and has already begun to slide.
“Merkel was under pressure because she has something to lose,” said Jan Techau, director of the Alfred Oppenheimer Centre for European Policy Studies.
“She had to appear substantial on the issues she has avoided so far.” But, as head of an election campaign based largely around her personality, Angela Merkel found herself with little concrete to talk about.
The only major element of the CDU campaign is a vague promise of €15 billion in tax cuts without mention of when they will be introduced or how they will be financed.
“We want to motivate people through tax cuts so they have more in their pay packet,” she said, without naming a date.
With Angela Merkel largely a known quantity, all eyes ahead of the debate were on her challenger, the SPD foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier.
“The debate was Mr Steinmeier’s last chance to catch up. He must win,” said Mr Techau.
Though the career bureaucrat turned in a stronger performance than many expected, he failed to land the clear blow he needed to close the 12-point gap with his rival.
Mr Steinmeier’s main line of attack in the campaign has been that only a vote for the SPD will hinder a new CDU/FDP government and the promise of drastic welfare cuts and economic reform.
“Only a government led by the SPD will introduce minimum wages and limit manager pay, which the CDU prevented in the grand coalition,” he said.
His only real chance at power, in a coalition with the Green Party, requires the help of the ex-communist Left Party, help Mr Steinmeier has said he would rather do without – for now.
That threat has been blunted somewhat because, as chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s chief of staff, Mr Steinmeier helped to draft the reform programme of 2003 that was hugely unpopular with voters and – two years later – cost Mr Schröder his job.
The reforms rescued Germany from economic disaster and cushioned it against the worst of the current recession, but Mr Steinmeier struggled to take the credit last night.
Instead, he watched in amazement as Dr Merkel did that for everything from the dramatic drop in the jobless rate to the recent rescue of Opel.
The SPD is pushing a social justice ticket – minimum wage, free education for all and better childcare. In an ambitious “Germany Plan”, Mr Steinmeier has promised full employment by 2020 and further investment in renewable energy. But at this stage, commentators suggest Mr Steinmeier’s battle now is not to win the election, but to keep the SPD as junior partner in a grand coalition.
“Grand coalitions should remain an exception in politics and aren’t formed by parties, but arise from the will of voters, as was the case in 2005,” he said.
Despite their different political homes, yesterday’s debate brought home to German voters just how similar the two candidates are.
Neither is a natural television performer, both are thinkers rather than shouters who, for reasons of personal style and credibility, have refrained from attacking each other on the campaign.
So where does that leave voters? Confused.
As one commentator pointed out yesterday, it seems as if the only significant difference between the two is that Mr Steinmeier is a life-long Rolling Stones fan while the first record Angela Merkel ever bought, as a teenager on a school trip to Moscow, was a Beatles album.