A SECOND referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has a chance of being carried, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which shows a swing to the Yes side since the referendum defeat last June.
The poll shows a change in public attitudes since June with 43 per cent now saying they would vote Yes, 39 per cent No and 18 per cent having no opinion.
In the poll, people were asked how they would vote if the treaty was modified to allow Ireland to retain an EU commissioner and other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation were clarified in special declarations.
When the "don't knows" are excluded this gives the Yes side 52.5 per cent, with the No side on 47.5 per cent. It compares to the referendum result in June of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.
With 18 per cent of voters undecided the poll indicates that the outcome of another referendum is in the balance and everything will depend on the quality of the campaigns waged by the Yes and No sides.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said last night the Government would decide in the coming weeks whether or not to hold a second referendum. "We have indicated that by December we will bring the elements of a solution to the December council meeting of all the European states," he told RTÉ's The Week in Politics.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 3 per cent.
The poll confirms the results of surveys carried out for the European Commission and the Government after the referendum defeat in June which showed a clear division of opinion across social class.
Among the most well-off AB voters the Yes side is in the lead by 57 per cent to 27 per cent while among the less well-off DE voters the No side leads by 47 per cent to 29 per cent. What will be heartening for supporters of the EU is that among the biggest C1 social category, covering lower middle-class voters, the Yes side has a lead of 53 to 33 per cent.
Farmers are now in favour of the treaty by 46 per cent to 32 per cent which represents a substantial shift since the last Irish Times poll before the referendum in June.
The big weakness of the Yes campaign is among women and people in the youngest age group. Among 18- to 24-year-olds just 32 per cent intend to vote Yes and 38 per cent No. There is a substantial 30 per cent in this category who have no opinion.
The strongest Yes support comes from middle-aged voters in the 35 to 49 and the 50 to 64 age categories.
Among women, 40 per cent intend to vote No compared with 38 per cent Yes and 23 per cent in the don't know category. Men are for the treaty by 48 per cent to 38 per cent with 15 per cent having no opinion.
In party terms, Fianna Fáil voters are the most positive with 51 per cent intending to vote Yes and 34 per cent No. Supporters of the Green Party also say they will vote Yes by 45 per cent to 33 per cent.
Fine Gael voters back the treaty by 46 per cent to 36 per cent while Labour voters are also in favour by 47 per cent to 38 per cent.
In the last poll in June only Fianna Fáil and Green supporters professed themselves in favour of the treaty with a majority of Fine Gael, Labour voters rejecting the advice of their party leaders and voting No.
