ANKARA – Turkish northern Cyprus could deal a crippling blow to Turkey’s hopes of joining the EU tomorrow if, as expected, the breakaway region elects a hardliner in presidential elections.
Such a result would be an enormous irony. The enclave owes its creation to a 1974 Turkish invasion launched after a Greek Cypriot coup seeking union with Greece. Turkey has, since independence from Britain in 1960, acted as guarantor of Turkish Cypriot interests and is alone in recognising northern Cyprus.
Predominantly Muslim Turkey opened talks to join the European Union in 2005, but progress has slowed due in part to Ankara’s failure to implement key reforms, including a settlement in Cyprus.
Some 164,000 voters in northern Cyprus hold the key to Ankara’s aspirations to join the EU when they cast ballots in an election in which a nationalist is favoured to unseat the pro-settlement incumbent.
Analysts say a victory for Dervis Eroglu, who supports a two-state confederation for the island’s Turkish and Greek communities, would undermine UN-backed reunification efforts and dash Turkey’s dreams of joining the EU.
Polls give Mr Eroglu, currently Turkish Cypriot prime minister, a large margin for victory against rival, Mehmet Ali Talat. Turkey, officially neutral, has made no secret of its support for Mr Talat.
“I don’t think anybody is going to walk away from the negotiating table, but if Eroglu wins we will see a slow death of the talks and an acceptance of partition,” said Hugh Pope, Turkey/Cyprus director for the International Crisis Group. – (Reuters)