Poor US employment figures revealed yesterday shows recent upbeat economic news may not be enough to prevent the economy from being an electoral liability for President Bush.
The Labor Department figures show non-farm payrolls rose by only 1,000 in December. Economic experts had forecast a jump of at least 130,000, with some suggesting an increase of 200,000 or more.
The optimism followed data showing gross domestic product rising 8.2 per cent in the third quarter. But the latest jobs figures suggest the stimulus to the economy from Mr Bush's tax cuts last summer might be transitory and could fade as a consumer spending splurge levels off.
"The story remains the disconnect between statistics suggesting a booming economy and perceptions in Main Street," said leading pollster Mr John Zogby.
"My polling still shows 21 per cent of people, and 25 per cent of those earning over $75,000, are afraid of losing their jobs in the next year," he said.
The jobs report capped an unpleasant 24 hours for Mr Bush, coming just hours after news that nine US servicemen died when their helicopter was hit by a rocket in Iraq.
Most political pundits believe Mr Bush is heading for a second four-year term in next November's presidential election. But his vulnerabilities remain the economy and the prospect of continuing casualties in Iraq.
"The Democrats seemed almost resigned to losing the economy as an election issue. This report changes that and revives the issue," said Mr Dean Spiliotes, head of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Saint Anselm College.
"Bush still has a better than 50 per cent chance of re-election, but if we lose more helicopters and the economy fails to pick up, he could find himself in a less secure position," Mr Spiliotes said.
A rash of economic good news in the last three months coupled with the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, had brightened the public mood. A CNN/Gallup/ USA Todaypoll this week found 55 per cent of Americans expressing satisfaction with the President - the highest Gallup figure since Mr Bush said major fighting had concluded in Iraq last May.
When the latest Bush tax cuts took effect last June, the White House was predicting they would lead to the creation of over 1.8 million new jobs by the end of 2003 and 5.5 million by the end of 2004. So far, only 221,000 have appeared.
And the migration of manufacturing and increasingly of white collar and service jobs overseas has accelerated.
Coupled with soaring health-care costs and worries about the long-term viability of the Social Security retirement system, the latest jobs news has fueled anxiety about the future for many middle class Americans.