US general predicts big troop reduction in Iraq

IRAQ: US forces could embark on a major troop reduction by as early as next spring, Gen George Casey, the senior US ground commander…

IRAQ: US forces could embark on a major troop reduction by as early as next spring, Gen George Casey, the senior US ground commander in Iraq, said yesterday.

But the process will be contingent on improved political and security conditions, Gen Casey added, as he offered for the first time a tentative time-frame for withdrawing multinational forces from the country.

"If the political process continues to go positively, if the developments with the [ Iraqi] security forces continue to go as it is going, I do believe we will still be able to make fairly substantial reductions after these elections - in the spring and summer of next year," Gen Casey told reporters during a surprise visit to Baghdad by US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

At a press conference with Mr Rumsfeld, Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari called for an acceleration of the training of Iraqi security forces, saying the Iraqi people "desire speed" in the matter of US troop withdrawal.

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"The great desire of the Iraqi people is to see the coalition forces be on their way out as they [ the new Iraqi security forces] take more responsibility."

The remarks come in response to growing pressure inside Iraq - as well as among coalition partners - for transparent commitments on troop withdrawal.

A leaked defence ministry memo earlier this month detailed a possible scenario whereby US troop numbers in Iraq would be cut from 170,000 troops to 66,000 by the middle of next year.

Gen Casey made similar noises last spring, but shaken by the insurgency that has raged since the Shia-led government took power on April 28th, US officials have remained silent on the issue since then.

Plans to reduce the multinational force remain dependent on the security situation, however, which appeared unchanged yesterday: two Algerian envoys were killed by militants, while a suicide bomber killed at least five outside a Baghdad hospital. US and Iraqi officials estimate it will be several years before US troops disappear completely from Iraqi soil.

Troop withdrawal is also dependent on political progress. According to the timetable for Iraq's transition to full sovereignty, a referendum on a new constitution will be held in October and general elections in December.

The US regards the new constitution as a milestone in the transition to democratic rule, and a safeguard of its exit strategy.

"We don't want any delays," Mr Rumsfeld said. "Now's the time to get on with it."

Iraqi national security adviser Mowfaq al-Rubaei said a joint US-Iraqi commission had started to prepare the ground for the swift transfer to Iraqi control of security in at least 10 cities, as well as certain neighbourhoods in Baghdad.

He said these included the relatively quiet Kurdish self-rule area, where there are fewer than 200 US soldiers stationed, as well as the Shia holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala and the southern city of Samawa.