Upton remains favourite to win apathetic by-election contest

The Labour Party's Dr Mary Upton remains favourite to emerge today as the winner of the by-election in Dublin South-Central.

The Labour Party's Dr Mary Upton remains favourite to emerge today as the winner of the by-election in Dublin South-Central.

Party activists are predicting that yesterday's voter turnout may have been the lowest in the history of the State.

Fine Gael's director of elections, Mr Brian Hayes, predicted last night that the turnout would be below 28.3 per cent, which appears to be the lowest hitherto in a by-election.

After polls closed at 9 last night he said the turnout might not have risen much above 25 per cent. Fianna Fail and Labour said it could have risen to 30 per cent.

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A turnout of just 14 per cent was recorded in James's Street in the south inner city, while 40 per cent was recorded in part of Crumlin, according to Fianna Fail.

The 28.3 per cent figure was recorded in the 1945 by-election in Dublin North-West, which was not even contested by Fine Gael. Major Vivion de Valera won that seat, which had been vacated by Sean T. O'Kelly upon being elected President.

Counting begins at 9 this morning in the Serpentine Hall at the RDS. Early indications of the result should be available from party tallies by late morning, while the result is expected to be declared officially by late afternoon, unless a recount is called.

The contest, caused by the death of Dr Pat Upton last February, was keenly contested by the parties but aroused little interest among voters. Transfers from lower-placed candidates, particularly those of Sinn Fein and the Green Party, are likely to determine the outcome. However, the low turnout makes the result less predictable than usual, as the minority of electors who actually voted may be unrepresentative of the constituency as a whole.

Turnout in the 1997 general election was 60.7 per cent, when Pat Upton, Mr Gay Mitchell (FG), Mr Sean Ardagh and Mr Ben Briscoe (both Fianna Fail) were elected.

Last night, Mr Hayes said the turnout was "abysmal and very depressing". His party had run a very active campaign, he said, and such a low turnout was very dispiriting. However, he maintained that the party's candidate, Ms Catherine Byrne, was still "in with a shout" of winning.

A Fianna Fail spokesman said his party had also run a big campaign, but that no national issues had figured in the canvass and this could help explain the low level of interest.

He maintained that the result would emerge from a "two-horse race" between his party's candidate, Mr Michael Mulcahy - who received 4,574 first-preference votes in the 1997 general election - and Labour's Dr Upton.

The constituency will become a five-seater at the next general election, so the candidates in this by-election who are unsuccessful will nevertheless be keen to position themselves for that campaign.

Labour has already decided that it will run Mr Eric Byrne, formerly a Democratic Left deputy for the constituency, who won a by-election during the last Dail term, as well as Dr Upton.