A RIFT within the Ulster Unionist Party in North Belfast has created the possibility of Sinn Fein, the SDLP or the DUP taking the seat. The SDLP has not ruled out the possibility of a pact with Sinn Fein to win the seat for nationalists.
Dissension within the UUP camp emerged this week with the decision by the party's MP for North Belfast, Mr Cecil Walker, to stand as an independent unionist candidate in the next British general election.
Mr Walker (71), the sitting MP for 13 years, claimed there has been a right wing takeover of his constituency and that he was told not to put forward his name for re selection.
He also claimed that the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, was supporting attempts to replace older MPs such as himself. "I think it is widely known that he has been encouraging certain individuals to put themselves forward for selection," said Mr Walker.
Mr Trimble said he remained neutral on the selection issue: "I have supported the decisions of the delegates of all other constituencies and I will not try to interfere in that process.
Mr Nelson McCausland, a UUP city councillor, has already stated he will be putting forward his name for selection for North Belfast.
Mr Walker, a UUP member for 40 years, confirmed yesterday he is to stand as a traditional unionist in the constituency. He rejected suggestions that in doing so he would split the UUP vote in North Belfast. He was confident of holding the seat.
He claimed there was a party conspiracy to have him ousted as MP, a claim denied by Mr Trimble. An internal party document circulating in North Belfast claimed Mr Walker was ineffective, but the MP said this was just further proof of the conspiracy against him.
Mr Walker was the agreed unionist candidate in the last Westminster election, romping home with 17,200 votes, a majority of almost 10,000 votes over the SDLP candidate, Mr Alban Maginness, with Sinn Fein's Mr Paddy McManus further behind with 4,700 votes.
Based on such figures, unionists would feel confident next time, even with rival unionist candidates. However, using the forum election of last May as the yardstick when the DUP topped the poll with 19.24 per cent of the vote, followed by 19 per cent for Sinn Fein, 18.54 per cent for the SDLP and 17.16 per cent for the UUP - the contest is wide open.
Nationalist chances would be enhanced if the SDLP and Sinn Fein agreed on a candidate, particularly if the unionist vote was to be fragmented. The SDLP chairman, Mr Jonathan Stephenson, said he believed that unionists would heal their differences ahead of the election, but he did not rule out a pact with Sinn Fein.
"As far as any pact on the nationalist side is concerned that is a matter for electoral tactics, and I would not want to speculate on that this far ahead of a general election," he said.
He suggested that a permanent IRA ceasefire might create the climate for a pact. The biggest contribution to divisions among nationalists was the campaign of republican paramilitary violence, he told BBC Radio Ulster.
"I rule nothing in, and nothing out," he replied when pressed about the prospects of an accommodation between the two parties.
Mr Joe Austin, the likely Sinn Fein candidate in North Belfast, said it was "very early days" to be discussing pacts with the SDLP. But neither did he rule out such an occurrence. "Quite obviously, if loyalists are in disarray then those in political opposition to them will shed no tears," he added.
The UUP split in North Belfast also opens the door for a possible DUP victory. Mr Nigel Dodds topped the poll in North Belfast in the forum election with almost 8,000 votes, and would be the expected DUP candidate if unionists "don't get their act together".
