South Antrim looks like a rural constituency on the map, but it takes in a large swathe of north Belfast suburbia. About 40 per cent of the electorate lives in areas like Glengormley and Carnmoney, which are mainly middle-class and socially part of north Belfast. Antrim town includes estates with families who moved out of working-class areas of Belfast.
But while the constituency may be socially mixed, in political terms it is overwhelmingly unionist. The Ulster Unionist Party got 57.5 per cent of the vote in the Westminster elections, and the Progressive Unionist Party 8.69 per cent. There was no Democratic Unionist Party candidate. The crucial question in the Assembly elections will be if the majority of unionists elected are pro or anti-agreement.
The UUP is fielding three candidates. They include Mr Jim Wilson, the party's general secretary, a strong supporter of the agreement, and Mr John Hunter, one of its negotiators, who is strongly opposed. According to a party spokesman the third candidate, Duncan Dalton, is "probably" a Yes man, but according to the DUP this depends on who one talks to. So there will be as much interest in which of the UUP candidates does best as in how the parties fare against each other.
The DUP is fielding two candidates, Mr Wilson Clyde and Mr Stuart Deignan, and the UK Unionists are fielding one, Mr Norman Boyd. Neither had candidates in the Westminster election, but the DUP got 24 per cent in the Forum elections, and the UK Unionists 5.3 per cent for "a fellow from Glasgow who spent one afternoon on the whole campaign". According to the party spokesman, it expects to increase its vote now the organisation is up and running.
However, it is hard to envisage the DUP and the UK Unionists getting three seats between them. Both parties draw eager attention to the candidacy of Mr John Hunter, so clearly they will be asking for strong transfers for him to ensure three of the four unionist candidates likely to be elected are opposed to the agreement.
The PUP hopes to upset this plan. Having won a respectable 8.68 per cent of the vote in the Westminster election, it is running Mr Ken Wilkinson from Antrim town.
The SDLP hopes to take the remaining two seats. It is running two candidates, Mr Donovan McClelland, a talks negotiator, and Mr Thomas Burns, son of a veteran SDLP councillor from Glengormley. Mr McClelland is from Antrim, so they are geographically separated and the party will try to manage the vote to keep them fairly level and maximise transfers.
"There's a seat there for us," said a party spokesman, Mr Conall McDermot. "We have a quota and a third. To win a second seat our candidate would have to stay ahead of Alliance and Sinn Fein and get transfers from both."
The Alliance Party wants to thwart this plan. Its candidate, Mr David Ford, ran in the Westminster election and got 11.6 per cent of the vote, almost a quota. He will want to stay ahead of one of the SDLP candidates and benefit from his eventual elimination.
Sinn Fein is running the veteran republican, Mr Martin Meehan from north Belfast. Its vote was 5.55 per cent in 1997, and it is unlikely Mr Meehan can more than double that to reach a quota.
The Women's Coalition is running Ms Joan Cosgrove, a community activist from Glengormley. The UDP is not running a candidate.
With two-thirds of the votes in the Westminster election, unionist parties will probably win four of the six seats. What is less predictable is where they will go. If two go to the United Unionist camp, and if Mr Hunter is also elected, it will look bad for Mr David Trimble. But, following the victory for the Yes camp in the referendum, this may not happen.
It is likely the SDLP and Alliance will share the other two seats.
South Antrim Candidates Duncan Dalton (UUP), John Hunter (UUP), Jim Wilson (UUP), Stewart Deignan (DUP), Wilson Clyde (DUP), Thomas Burns (SDLP), Donovan McClelland (SDLP), David Ford (All), Ken Wilkinson (PUP), Norman Boyd (UKU), Martin Meehan (SF), Joan Cosgrove (WC).
Westminster 1997:
UUP 57 per cent; SDLP 16 per cent; Alliance 12 per cent; PUP 9 per cent; Sinn Fein 5.5 per cent Natural Law Party 0.5 per cent