Uncertainty still faces Zimbabwe's leader inside and outside his party

Barricades manned by heavily armed police went up around State House in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, on Sunday night, just…

Barricades manned by heavily armed police went up around State House in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, on Sunday night, just hours after the polls closed in the most important elections for 20 years. They may have been nothing more than a routine precaution for President Robert Mugabe.

But behind the high walls and barbed wire, the 76-year-old President was surely mulling over a range of unsavoury possible options that seemed to face him if the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party won enough seats to seriously challenge the ruling party.

Mr Mugabe had a head-start on his opponents. He currently controls 147 of the parliament's 150 seats, 117 through his Zimbabwe African National Unity Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party and the remainder through political appointments. So the MDC needed 75 seats to win a majority while he needed only 45.

But the only independent opinion poll conducted during the violent pre-election campaign suggested that an MDC victory was likely. This prediction was reinforced by the weekend's high turnout of at least three million voters, a 50 per cent increase on the previous election.

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Such a scenario would have presented President Mugabe - who has the sole ability to appoint government - with three options, none of which he would find particularly appealing.

The first would be to form a government of national unity with a cabinet comprised of both MDC and Zanu-PF ministers. This option has already been discounted as "wild" by the Zanu-PF national chairman, Mr John Nkomo, who said last Sunday that his party would form the government "whatever the outcome of the elections".

A senior Zanu-PF member, who considers himself on the minority moderate wing of the party, also felt there was "absolutely no chance" of President Mugabe sharing power.

The second option would be to ignore the MDC majority and form a Zanu-PF government. Zanu insiders say this is the most likely possibility, although he would probably reduce the size of the cabinet from 20 to between 10 and 15 ministers.

Such a solution would make Zimbabwe largely ungovernable. The machinery of government, controlled by Mr Mugabe, would grind to a halt as the MDC would use its majority to block it at every turn in parliament.

In the final scenario, Mr Mugabe could dissolve parliament and rule by decree, as provided for by the constitution. This, or any decision that fails to recognise the MDC majority, would turn Mr Mugabe and Zimbabwe into international outcasts and could provoke widespread civil unrest.

"Dissolving parliament would mean that he no longer has the mandate of the people. That would raise the spectre of the streets and I shudder to think of the consequences. I don't think he can be that foolish," said Mr Masipula Sithole, a director of political science and director of the Mass Public Opinion Institute, which predicted the MDC win.

Zimbabwe's pariah status among the international community and financial institutions would also be enforced, plunging the country further into economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund, which has refused to advance much needed loans, would remain closed for business and all other financial inflows would dry up.

An MDC administration, on the other hand, would go a considerable way towards restoring international confidence. The MDC has promised to pull Zimbabwe out of its costly adventure in the Congo war, to float the Zimbabwean dollar - currently floating at 38 per US dollar on the official market versus 60 on the black market - and to tackle corruption.

Delivering on these promises would be painful to ordinary Zimbabweans, who would see the price of fuel and imported goods soar, but would encourage foreign investors and kick start an economy paralysed by 55 per cent unemployment and inflation and interest rates of over 70 per cent.

Even if the MDC were to win a large number of seats but fall short of a majority, President Mugabe's problems would not be over.

He would have to accommodate the moderate wing of his own party, which has been sidelined by the extreme elements since the land occupations started in February, to prevent defectors crossing the floor. "If we don't reform, the party will disintegrate," one Zanu insider said.

No matter what the result, due to be announced at the earliest today, President Mugabe faces an uncertain future, under sustained pressure from both a powerful opposition and reformist elements within his own party.

Whether he chooses to resolve this tension through peaceful political negotiation, or by using the army and police under his control to impose brutal state repression, only the coming days and weeks will tell.