Irish beef exports to Britain, currently running at an all-time high, could be badly hit by a British decision to allow beef from animals over 30 months old back into the food chain.
The British beef industry, in an attempt to win back consumers, slaughtered and destroyed all beef animals over 30 months old since 1996.
The gap left in the home market, which widened with the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of cattle in the foot-and- mouth crisis in 2001, was exploited in full by the Irish beef industry.
Prior to 2001, Ireland exported around 100,000 tonnes of beef to Britain but that increased to nearly 200,000 tonnes in 2001 and last year reached 245,000 tonnes.
According to the Irish Food Board journal, Market Monitor, Ireland's share of UK beef imports is currently running at an all-time high at over 60 per cent this year. This compares with just 40 per cent in 2000 and around 50 per cent prior to the 1996 BSE crisis, it said.
It reported this week that the UK Food Standards Agency in its review of the Over Thirty Month (OTM) scheme suggested that it sees little, if any, difference in the level of scientific risk associated with ending the OTM scheme completely compared with a gradual phasing out over a number of years.
"However, the fact that there was no compulsory individual animal identification scheme in place in the UK until July 1996 means that it is highly unlikely that the scheme will be ended completely from January 2004," it said.
"The most likely scenario being examined at the moment is the return of all animals born after 1st August 1996 to the UK food chain from January 2004. While this would have a smaller impact than a complete ending to the scheme, it would still significantly alter the UK beef market balance," it continued.
It said the UK Food Standards Agency was due to deliver its recommendations to government in early July with a view to a final decision being reached in early autumn.
If the August 1996 scenario was agreed, it would boost UK beef production in 2004 by 24 per cent or 155,000 tonnes with the full impact of OTM cattle returning to the food chain evident by 2006.
"This scenario would reduce the UK beef import requirement by an estimated 105,000 tonnes or 25 per cent in 2004. This is based on the assumption of improved consumption levels in the UK and beef exports of 30,000 tonnes," it went on.
"If either of these assumptions prove incorrect, then the decline in UK beef imports would be greater."
It said Irish beef going to the manufacturing and food service sectors was likely to be most at risk while processed beef exports may be in a better position to maintain market share.