The Liberal Democrats are the first UK party to get candidates in place for the June 1999 elections, having completed the selection process for the English regions. By vote of the party membership, candidates have been ranked 1-8 for each region, in a male/female order. An exception to the male/female ranking has, however, been agreed for the South West where incumbent members, Graham Watson and Robin Teverson, head the list.
The Tories meanwhile, have embarked on a vast consultation exercise within the party. Party members from three regions, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and the South East, have made their choice.
The UK Labour Party, too, is engaged in the selection process through consultation with the membership. It will produce a "jumbo" list of 300 candidates to go before a special election panel representing all sections of the party. It is expected that the final proposed lists of candidates will go for approval to the party conference in the autumn.
On the basis of current opinion polls, Labour is set to lose around 20 seats in next year's European Parliament elections, according to a new study from the Public Policy Group of the London School of Economics.
The study explains the workings of the new electoral system, which is to be based on proportional representation for 10 regional constituencies for England, and constituencies for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The dramatic loss for Labour comes about because the existing "first past the post" system distorts the result in terms of seats gained. Indeed, in 1994 Labour gained 62 seats (74 per cent of those contested) with just 44 per cent of the vote.
The study forecasts that the Conservatives are likely to increase their number of seats from 18 to around 25, even with a low percentage of the poll. The main gainers however will probably be the Liberal Democrats, who are likely to see their seats increase from 2 to around 12, even with just 17 per cent of the vote. The Scottish Nationalists, too, are projected to increase their representation if their showing in current opinion polls in Scotland is maintained. Plaid Cymru is set to enter the Parliament with one seat.
The big imponderable is the effect of the new system on voter turnout. The last Euro-elections saw just 36 per cent of UK voters go to the polls. The question now is whether the novelty of the new system, and the knowledge that all votes count, will succeed in increasing participation. Much may depend on how much of a publicity campaign the government makes for the new system. The change in the system will bring the UK into line with other EU states which use different form of PR.
Counting on Europe, PR and the 1999 elections of the European Parliament, by Patrick Dunleavy, Simon Hix and Helen Margetts. LSE Public Policy Group in association with Adamson Associates. 1998. £20. ISBN 075 30 1225.