David Trimble may go down in history as the leader who took unionism to new ground in negotiating the Belfast Agreement, but the role played by the two loyalist parties in helping him should not be underestimated.
Both the Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) and the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) take credit for inventing "new unionism". David Adams of the UDP describes this as a unionism without the historic and sectarian baggage. The PUP's Billy Hutchinson says his party led the way. "The Ulster Unionist Party would never have moved if we hadn't been involved. I think they are trying to steal our clothes. We wouldn't have had the referendum if people like the PUP and the UDP weren't about."
In practical terms, the talks could not have concluded without the loyalist parties, as the Ulster Unionist Party has the support of just under 50 per cent of unionism. Under the sufficient consensus rule, the UUP needed at least one of the loyalist parties to stay at the talks when the DUP and the UK Unionists pulled out.
Both the UDP and the PUP are determined to build their influence and electoral support and are hoping to benefit from the momentum created by Friday's substantial Yes vote. Their growth in the past, from very small beginnings, has been steady.
After the 1993 local elections, both parties had just one councillor each. In the Forum elections in May 1996, the PUP got 3.47 per cent of the vote, and the UDP 2.22 per cent. The local elections of 1997 saw the PUP increase its number of councillors to six, and the UDP got four councillors elected. In the British general election last May, the PUP ran three candidates, two of them in Belfast, where David Ervine got some 6,000 votes in South Belfast. The party's overall share of the vote in Belfast was 12 per cent. Translating this growth into assembly seats will not be an easy task, particularly for the UDP. In the Forum elections, a "top-up" system was used, giving the top 10 parties an extra two seats, which helped the smaller parties gain representation. There will be no such system for the assembly elections. Six candidates will be elected in each of the 18 constituencies using a single transferable vote system. A candidate will need just over 14 per cent of the vote to get elected.
The UDP's best chances of gaining seats lie with its party leader, Mr Gary McMichael, in Lagan Valley, and Mr David Adams, in South Belfast. However, Prof Sidney Elliott, of Queen's University, in his analysis of how the assembly seats will be shared, does not believe the UDP will get a seat in either constituency.
The PUP is likely to win two seats and could gain as many as four or five. The party is meeting tonight to select candidates, but it is believed it will run people in 12 constituencies. Those almost certain to win seats are Mr David Ervine, in East Belfast, and Mr Billy Hutchinson, in North Belfast. The party leader, Mr Hugh Smyth, has a good chance of getting elected in West Belfast.
Both parties believe voters will reward them for their role in the talks. They have also enjoyed a very high media profile. Mr Adams says these two factors, combined with the good referendum result, should lead to an increase in support. Mr Hutchinson says the PUP aims to have 12 per cent of the overall vote in the North by 2005 and believes it is on track to achieve that.
He believes the PUP will take votes from both the DUP and the UUP. "Our votes are coming from people who I would describe as left of centre in both parties." Mr Adams says the number of unionist voters has been decreasing over the years due to a disenchantment with the kind of leadership on offer. "Our hope is to try to entice those people back out to vote again by offering a new type of unionism - a vibrant, confident unionism."
In reality though, both parties will need to increase their support base from workingclass loyalist estates. In the past they have managed to get the support of some middleclass voters, but their association with paramilitaries may deter many. The UDP is linked to the UDA, while the PUP speaks for the UVF. The UDP was put out of the talks for six weeks after the UDA killed three Catholics only a few months ago.
As unionism changes, voting patterns are also likely to change. The success of the UDP and the PUP in the Assembly elections will depend on their ability to convince more moderate voters to back their "constructive" brand of unionism, despite their paramilitary associations. Mr Hutchinson is confident. "We're going from strength to strength. We're full of confidence because we know what we are doing."