UCC centre gathering data for forecasting famine risk

Famines are about something more complex than food shortage, according to the International Famine Centre at University College…

Famines are about something more complex than food shortage, according to the International Famine Centre at University College Cork.

The history of famine in Ireland shows these disasters are as rooted in politics and economics as they are in the environment, says the centre's director, Mr Stephen Jackson.

Enough has been written about the Great Irish Famine: the UCC centre is looking forwards, not backwards.

One of its projects is the Electronic Famine Alert using the Internet and the Web to analyse information and communicate it quickly to the relevant authorities.

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"Among the most horrifying aspects of famines today is that experts usually know about them in advance, yet the world does so little.

"In 1991, a full year before the devastating famine that engulfed Somalia, killing more than 300,000 people, the signs were already there - looming war, diminished food production, unfavourable climate.

"Drawing on the strengths of the new electronic technologies, the International Famine Centre at UCC wants to make sure history does not repeat itself in this terrible way.

"If the information exists to warn us about famine, then it needs to be analysed and communicated quickly to those with influence so that effective action can be taken," Mr Jackson says.

The famine alert project will draw on information from all over the world , including satellite imaging of crop growth in drought-ridden areas; bulletins from people on the ground; indications of climate change; food hoarding and market panic.

Researchers at the centre will compile monthly electronic updates to indicate if famine threatens any part of the world.

These updates will answer questions such as where the danger of famine is; how great that danger is; and what must be done to avert it.

"The Electronic Famine Alert will be circulated to decision-makers here in Ireland, on the European stage and in the wider world, with an immediacy which comes through the use of new technology.

"Drawing on the Irish people's proven energetic commitment to humanitarian work in famine relief, and our expertise in technology, we believe this project is a worthy and effective way to honour Ireland's famine dead," says Mr Jackson.

Broadening and deepening the world's understanding of famine is a priority of the centre; emphasising that famine is too often viewed as a natural disaster is another.

The UCC centre aims to combat famine under three headings: "Famine and the environment - because of poor rainfall or inadequate land the peoples of the world still face food shortages; famine and economics - because inequality and exploitation at the local and global level mean that what people produce is often not theirs to eat; and famine and politics - because political oppression or outright war remain amongst the leading causes of famine now just as they were in the past."

The centre will try to identify what goes wrong with aid and how past mistakes might be rectified. Another aim is to argue for world trade reform and the creation of a level playing field so that disadvantaged people can survive famine through their own efforts.

It is an area Mr Jackson knows about: he worked as a relief worker in Somalia, Rwanda and Angola. This Dubliner also has degrees in public affairs and anthropology from Princeton University in the US.

Records show that as the Great Famine took hold in the south-west, the port of Cork continued to ship out grain to foreign buyers, notably in the UK: the lesson learnt is that nothing changes.

"In Baidoa, Somalia, in 1992, I think what stuck in my mind more than anything was the sight of grain markets carrying on a busy trade not 100 yards from where I was watching people dying in the streets of hunger.

"I suppose it was this more than anything which convinced me that famines are always manmade disasters . . .

"After Somalia, many people asked why the international community didn't know about the famine earlier. In fact we did know, but we did nothing for almost a year.

"The crying need isn't for early-warning systems but for somebody to take those warnings and make a loud noise with them in the public arena so that timely action is taken," says Mr Jackson.

The centre can be contacted at UCC on (021) 903395 or by email at s.jackson@ucc.ie