Turkey's new Justice and Development Party (AKP) government looks set for a clash with the country's secular establishment after the president vetoed laws that would allow its leader to become prime minister.
President Ahmet Necdet Sezer yesterday rejected constitutional amendments to lift the parliamentary ban on Tayyip Erdogan, the popular former mayor of Istanbul barred from the assembly for a 1999 jail sentence for Islamic sedition.
The AKP, suspected by Turkey's powerful military for its Islamist roots, vowed today to use its legislative majority to push the rejected constitutional amendments back through parliament after the assembly overwhelmingly approved them last week during efforts to meet EU membership criteria.
"We'll pass the articles unchanged and send them back to the president again," AKP deputy group head Salih Kapusuz was quoted as saying by the daily Radikal on Friday. The likely battle between the AKP and the president could prove a blow to political stability and democratic reform in Turkey, an EU candidate where markets are already on edge over a possible U.S. attack against neighbouring Iraq.
Since the AKP came to power last month, Erdogan has toured major European capitals and the United States to impress on the NATO member's Western allies his commitment to political and economic measures to pave the way for EU membership. Analysts say markets will be eyeing further comments from the AKP, which must weigh ambitions to get Erdogan into parliament with a possible return to political turmoil.
"It's very difficult to know what the market reaction will be, but it won't be pretty," said Isaac Tabor at Merrill Lynch in London.
Turkey has enjoyed an uncommon period of political and market optimism since the AKP formed a single-party government vowing to press on with EU and IMF reforms in the crisis-hit country. The amendments vetoed by Sezer would have let Erdogan stand in a by-election early next year and then become prime minister.
Sezer ruled the changes were unconstitutional as they were aimed to profit one single person. Erdogan is recognised by world leaders as Turkey's de facto leader after his extended tour to drum up support for EU membership. The changes were passed with the support of the only opposition party, the secularist Republican People's Party. Sezer does not have the authority to veto the laws a second time, but a fresh round of debate could spark tension between the staunchly secular army and the AKP.
The party was formed by moderates from a now-banned Islamist party but casts itself as pro-Western and pro-market. Turkey's financial markets have slumped this week on worries over a war in Iraq, with the lira currency dipping to five-week lows against the dollar and stocks sliding some 15 percent. Sezer, a previous top judge, can still apply to the constitutional court to have the amendments overturned if parliament passes them for a second time unchanged.
He could also call a public referendum. Parliament approved the amendments on December 13, the day Brussels awarded Turkey a December 2004 human rights review with a view to starting membership talks shortly after. A senior member of the sole opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), whose support the AKP may need to secure the two-thirds majority needed to push the amendments through parliament, indicated the party would support the move.
"These laws were not passed only for Erdogan, many political exiles could benefit from them. They are not for a single person. We believe the legal package was the correct thing to do," said CHP deputy group head Mustafa Ozyurek in the Sabah daily.