A state visit by the British monarch is seen as the inevitable culmination of the peace process, but not in the immediate future
THIS YEAR, next year, sometime, never? Despite renewed speculation this week, there is no evidence that a visit to the Republic by the British monarch is on the cards in the immediate future. It is highly unlikely Queen Elizabeth will be arriving any time this year. Next year is a much stronger prospect, but that is an eternity from now in political terms.
Most insiders and observers are agreed that a visit will definitely take place at some stage. British-Irish relations have never been better and the President, Mrs McAleese, is not far off the mark when she says they are at their best "in centuries".
The queen's visit to Northern Ireland this week coincided with a visit to Belfast by the President and they met at the lunch to celebrate the centenary of the granting of the royal charter to Queen's University Belfast. They have met on four other occasions as heads of state and, during her time as the university's pro-vice-chancellor, President McAleese met the queen twice.
Although the formal invitation would come from the President, it is a decision for the Government in the first instance. The Taoiseach told Fine Gael's Enda Kenny in the Dáil on March 4th that it is "unlikely to happen" until the devolution of policing and justice powers from London to Belfast takes place as part of the peace process.
"It will not be in 2008; it would take some considerable time to arrange," Ahern said.
A British embassy spokesman told The Irish Times: "As the Taoiseach has said, a visit to Ireland by Queen Elizabeth is on the agenda but the details of such a visit, including timing, are a matter of discussion between the two governments."
When it does finally take place, a state visit by Queen Elizabeth and the Duke of Edinburgh will probably last three days and begin with a 21-gun salute and Air Corps fly-past as part of the ceremonial welcome at Áras an Uachtaráin.
There might then be a tree-planting ceremony in the grounds of the Áras and, that evening, the President and Dr Martin McAleese would host a State dinner at the Áras in honour of the royal couple.
Due to the political sensitivities, it seems unlikely the British royals would lay a wreath at the Garden of Remembrance in Parnell Square followed by a tour of the GPO, as Belgium's King Albert II and Queen Paola did when they were here last October. It is much more likely that the queen and Prince Philip would visit the war memorial at Islandbridge, which commemorates Irish soldiers who fought and died in the British army during the first World War.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD of protests, the possibility of a ceremonial drive through the streets of Dublin is very remote indeed, but a school visit and what one observer calls a "controlled walkabout" in an area such as Grafton Street might be on the cards.
A viewing of the gold collection at the National Museum and exhibits at the library of Trinity College Dublin would also appear to be strong contenders for the programme. A visit to Leinster House and an address to the Oireachtas could be a possibility. It is customary for distinguished visitors to host a reciprocal dinner of their own at a location such as the National Gallery (a buffet reception accompanied by a classical concert is a possibility) and a lunch hosted by the Taoiseach at Iveagh House is another regular feature on the agenda.
Generally speaking, State visitors spend two days in the capital and one outside Dublin - the Belgian royal couple visited the Cliffs of Moher. The British royals might be accommodated at the State guesthouse in Farmleigh although there could be other options.
The President has spoken very warmly indeed about the prospect of a visit, which could be seen as the signal achievement of her second term in office as well as setting the seal on the peace process, but insiders say the Taoiseach is more circumspect. Close observers believe the enigmatic Bertie is "privately, personally, not at all keen" on the idea, not for any ideological reason but due to the possibility of objections from elements within his own party.
There is no problem among the coalition partners and Senator Dan Boyle, chairman of the Greens, says: "The Green Party has consistently supported the peace process throughout, and a visit by the Queen of England, when circumstances allow, would further help to nurture normal friendly relations between the two countries."
A spokesman for the Progressive Democrats says the party would be "very positive" about the prospect of a royal visit, which would be "a tangible expression" of the excellent relations between the two countries.
There was some bemusement in political circles in Dublin this week over negative unionist reaction to the President's statement that the timing of a visit would be subject to devolution of policing and justice. Mrs McAleese was only enunciating Government policy.