Trimble will be victorious but by how much?

The question for senior unionists is not, at this stage, whether David Trimble can win the vote at next Saturday's Ulster Unionist…

The question for senior unionists is not, at this stage, whether David Trimble can win the vote at next Saturday's Ulster Unionist Council but, by how wide a margin.

Independent estimates were yesterday expecting a 60-40 result for the leader's approach. Anything less, while not necessarily disastrous, would be a disappointment to the pro-agreement forces and a fillip for opponents of the peace process.

To paraphrase the old dictum, "you have nothing to fear but fear itself", the unionists have nothing to fear but the unionists themselves. Their own lack of professionalism and political skill could jeopardise the prospects of this deal going through.

Consider Sinn Fein: purring like a well-oiled machine, the party puts itself about the scene, deploying press releases and media appearances with careful precision. Its representatives are almost always, in the current phrase, "on message".

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It is uncanny to hear the same comments and analysis of events from Sinn Fein representatives who could not possibly have had time to meet and discuss the issues, much less work out an agreed line.

Apart from a contretemps with a Brussels bureaucrat last year, under conditions of considerable provocation, Sinn Fein gaffes are relatively rare. Not everyone finds this level of professionalism endearing, however, and senior SDLP members have been heard to mutter about a "Stalinist" mentality.

Their worst enemies could never accuse the unionists of being "on message". A respected clergyman remarked recently that "David Trimble is the moderator of the Presbyterian Church of Unionism".

Indeed, like the Presbyterian Moderator, the UUP-leader is elected year-by-year, although in the case of the UUP this is often a formality.

The time-honoured tradition of unionist dissent was on display at Mr Trimble's news conference yesterday in Glengall Street, when Mr David Brewster of the Union First ginger group publicly challenged the veracity of a statement issued by his leader which implied that all the party officers supported the deal that emerged from the Mitchell review.

Mr Trimble immediately conceded the point made by Mr Brewster, who was standing at the back of the room with Mr Jeffrey Donaldson. A corrected version of the statement was issued in short order, followed by a further statement released in the names of Trimble and Brewster, seeking to undo the damage.

The tendency of unionists to be all over the place at key moments on key issues has a certain appeal, particularly in this era of news management when, like karaoke singers, many politicians simply mouth the words prescribed by their spin-doctor.

But when major decisions have to be taken, with people's lives and the future of two communities at stake, it can be a little unsettling to see political affairs conducted in a shambolic manner.

Battle is now joined. Mr Trimble is out front and, yesterday at least, Mr Donaldson was taking on his arguments in a very direct and forthright way. There will be a media blitz for the coming week and it may be difficult to switch on the television or open the newspaper without being confronted by the UUP leader.

Mr Donaldson complained yesterday of media bias and exclusion but it will be surprising if that prevents him putting his case across.

Members of the Ulster Unionist Council will be subjected to intense cajoling and courting to ensure they vote the right way.

While forays on the part of Mr Peter Mandelson into the unionist heartland are not in prospect, he will hold discussions in his offices with any council member who wishes to meet him.

No better man to turn on the charm with unionist matrons from Ballymena or to assure doubting Thomases that, if the republicans want political office with all the trappings, then they must keep their promises on decommissioning.

Today, the Northern Ireland Secretary will reveal the British government's proposals on how the new institutions could be established, followed by a speech to the conference of the Women's Coalition. On Monday in the House of Commons, he will make a further statement on what Mr Charles Haughey used to call "the situation that exists".

Everything the two governments say and do will be aimed at helping the UUP leader over this great hurdle.

Spin-doctors, secretaries of state, friends in the media: Trimble has a lot going for him in what will still be a very difficult debate. The dissidents have been working quietly for some time and, if one is to judge from Radio Ulster's phone-in programme, Talkback, their grassroots support is far from negligible.

There are plans for meetings in different centres throughout Northern Ireland and one hears of "focus groups" and telephone canvassing.

The decision by Mr Derek Hussey to relinquish the post of deputy whip in the Assembly party was a boost for the dissidents but they will need a series of similar gestures from others to make real impact.

Nerve on both sides will be severely tested in the next seven days. Mr Trimble was not helped by reports of hardline comments alleged to have been made by Mr Martin Ferris in the United States and highlighted in the conservative Daily Telegraph. Mr Ferris later denied this "secondhand report posted on the Internet". This battle is even being waged in cyberspace.

It is one of the fruits of the recent discussions that Sinn Fein is seriously concerned not to create problems for Mr Trimble.

The old counter-moan of "what about our difficulties?" is rarely heard these days. Unionists and republicans now depend upon each other: to borrow a Blairism, they are "inextricably linked".

The pivotal figure in all this remains Mr John Taylor. He was due back from Iran yesterday but sources close to him said: "We will not be having any smoke, white or black, this side of Monday."

With unionists using metaphors drawn from the culture of the Vatican, a pluralist society may be closer than we think.