Trimble's mention of a deadline raises just a ripple

On the airwaves yesterday it wasn't all IRA weapons and demilitarisation and what the loyalist paramilitaries will do next

On the airwaves yesterday it wasn't all IRA weapons and demilitarisation and what the loyalist paramilitaries will do next. For once old politics had to jostle with the new. And that's progress.

The proposals from the Burns review to scrap the Eleven Plus exam for primary pupils also figured prominently on the bulletins and magazine programmes notwithstanding the fact that the unfolding developments over arms and restoring devolution is centre stage for the moment.

A sign of the changing times perhaps? As one longstanding issue potentially fades into the background here was an indication that bread-and-butter politics could in the not too distant future finally take the spotlight.

In the meantime, though, there are several more scenes to be enacted before the curtain comes down on the main drama. And for once, apart from one possible deviation, all the main players are adhering strictly to script.

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Mr David Trimble caused some concern when, in the House of Commons yesterday, he asked what sanctions will apply if all paramilitaries have not fully disarmed by February when the decommissioning body's remit expires "so as to avoid others having to apply sanctions".

It is implicit here that Mr Trimble might return to dangerous deadline or ultimatum mode if by February there isn't more action from the IRA, as well as from the loyalist paramilitaries. That comment rather jarred with the careful choreography that was being executed during the rest of the day.

It also contradicted what was emanating from senior Ulster Unionist and Sinn FΘin sources in recent days. They were of the opinion that henceforth the matter of IRA arms should be between the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning ( IICD) and the IRA.

"Leave it to these two groups to sort out and let's get on with the politics," was the general line. And if the British and Irish governments extend the lifetime of the IICD in February, then that is a matter for the governments.

So, has Mr Trimble lost his place in the set text? "Consider the context," was the advice from senior insiders. They observed that on Saturday Mr Trimble goes before his 110-member UUP ruling executive seeking endorsement for his plan to fully restore devolution in Northern Ireland.

He is likely to win that endorsement and perhaps his firm words about "sanctions" may help ensure that that endorsement is overwhelming.

A related context is that on Friday week the Assembly may be convened to elect a First Minister and Deputy First Minister, an act that is vital to ensure that all the institutions of the agreement can fully function, including the North-South bodies.

With Mr Seamus Mallon, like Mr John Hume, now taking a more back-seat role in politics, the SDLP leader designate, Mr Mark Durkan, will have little difficulty winning the required number of votes to be elected Deputy First Minister.

Mr Trimble, however, is one or two votes short of the necessary 30 to be re-elected. Hardline Ulster Unionist MLA Ms Pauline Armitage could be persuaded to support Mr Trimble but the other dissident, Mr Peter Weir, is a trickier customer. Perhaps the UUP mandarins believe that talk of future sanctions could assist in convincing him that he should vote for Mr Trimble, although equally they should know he is not gullible.

"It could just be a case of Trimble protecting his flank ahead of Saturday," said a Dublin source. "No one is getting upset about February just yet," said a well-placed Ulster Unionist.

It's a niggling worry though, something that not too far down the line has the potential to sour the developing public and political enthusiasm for a return to full power sharing. It's a stratagem that could backfire.

But if this does not go beyond internal UUP politicking then matters may continue to proceed at an accelerated and optimistic pace.

Mr Gerry Adams did the business on Monday. The IRA obliged on Tuesday. The Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, followed suit yesterday by announcing that the four British army structures in south Armagh and Derry mentioned in the Weston Park package will be dismantled immediately.

More importantly, but again in terms of the Weston Park proposals, he promised that as the security threat receded this would be followed by rolling demilitarisation and a reduction in British troop levels.

Loyalist paramilitaries are still hardballing but they too realise there will be no let-up in the demand that they also move on arms.

Mr Trimble reinstated his three ministers in the Executive yesterday. Today the DUP is expected to reappoint two ministers, although they may not necessarily be their outgoing ministers, Mr Gregory Campbell and Mr Maurice Morrow.

The DUP, as part of its semi-detached engagement in the Executive, has a policy of playing ministerial chairs, and this time Mr Peter Robinson or the Rev William McCrea or Mr Nigel Dodds or some other of Dr Ian Paisley's MLAs may get a turn.

The Ulster Unionists will knock as much fun out of this as possible. In recent years they have seen the DUP gradually erode their electoral power base because of their attempts to work the agreement. "We took the risks, the DUP took the gains," is the UUP complaint.

Restored UUP minister Sir Reg Empey took great delight yesterday in declaring that the DUP had made "monumental misjudgments" in insisting the IRA would never move on arms. "We will probably see them crawling back on their hands and knees into the Executive," he taunted.

It was fools' gold to talk of IRA decommissioning, retorted Mr Ian Paisley jnr. There is no doubt though that the DUP has taken a hit on this issue. For once the UUP can justifiably crow.

And while we still don't officially know what weapons were put beyond use, there were hints that it was the arms contained in the two or three dumps already witnessed by the arms inspectors, Mr Martti Ahtisaari and Mr Cyril Ramaphosa.

The two inspectors, who yesterday resigned believing that the decommissioning job should be left to the IRA and IICD, felt sufficiently informed to describe the IRA's decision as "substantial and significant".

Gen de Chastelain wasn't saying what was "put beyond use" but there was speculation last night that if the inspectors were withdrawing from the process the dumps they had inspected were now fully decommissioned.