Trimble facing a bitter test on strategy

The Ulster Unionist Party is a strange, troubled political animal

The Ulster Unionist Party is a strange, troubled political animal. Brendan Behan said the split was the first item on every republican agenda. But when one examines the cohesion of Sinn FΘin and the current IRA it is clear that the maxim applies more forcefully nowadays to the Ulster Unionist Party.

Central discipline is the obvious lesson that unionists could learn from republicans, but it was equally obvious at the UUP conference in Belfast on Saturday that there must be further internal blood-letting before - if ever - the party can present a united front to the world.

The weekend could and should have been a time for solidarity and celebration. David Trimble was back as First Minister; the IRA had finally moved on decommissioning when the DUP and other No unionists insisted it would never happen; and while it may not be the old pre-1970s regime, devolution was again fully functioning at Stormont.

These are matters one would imagine to be top of a UUP wish list, and therefore achievements to be trumpeted and relished. Not a bit of it at the annual conference in the Waterfront Hall.

READ MORE

The jaded delegates discussed policing, international terrorism, party organisation, health, education, women in politics, and more, but the unstated, yet emphatic, issue running through the entire conference was The Split.

Normally, UUP conferences attract about 500 delegates but at a maximum there were 350 present on Saturday, the vast majority of whom were Trimble supporters. Yet the baleful influence of those who would keep snapping at Mr Trimble's heels was keenly felt.

Jeffrey Donaldson did not speak at the conference but solemn-faced he held his ground. He also gave a number of media interviews outside auditorium where he reinforced upon the Northern public and the Yes camp of the party that he isn't for turning.

The previous night, behind the closed doors of party headquarters in Glengall Street, senior party members tore into Mr Donaldson and Young Unionist Dr Philip Weir, who is spearheading the call for a UUC gathering. There was much talk of treachery and betrayal but the two anti-Agreement stalwarts refused to budge on their demand for another extraordinary meeting of the 860-member Ulster Unionist Council on Saturday week.

There were also claims that they weren't so much anti-agreement as anti-Trimble. It was bitter, divisive stuff and, if less robust, there was more of it for public consumption at the conference on Saturday.

So, once again, we are heading for a major confrontation at the Waterfront Hall on Saturday week. Mr Donaldson and Dr Weir have their requisite 60 signatures and under the "astonishingly democratic" rules of the party the UUC meeting must go ahead, irrespective of the leadership's views. The delegates will be asked to support a motion which will attempt to ensure the UUP withdraws from government with Sinn FΘin if there is not total IRA decommissioning by February, when the remit of Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body expires.

Given the recent repetitive history of these affairs, it would be foolish to characterise it as the "final showdown" but none the less it should be a defining and possibly cathartic moment. The time would seem right for Mr Trimble to at least insist to his opponents, "back me or back off."

On Saturday Mr Trimble and his chief lieutenants went some distance in defining how and why their strategy is the surest way of protecting unionist interests. The audience was generally with him at the weekend although on Saturday week he will face a more divided room.

Mr Trimble delivered a strong and clever speech on Saturday. But he couldn't lift the crowd. He was addressing the moderate wing of the party, a centre ground that was very subdued and almost fatalistic in its demeanour. That was understandable because this has been a long, grinding period for unionism.

The party suffered electoral reversals at the hands of the DUP, it witnessed the demise of the RUC, the neutralising of British royal symbolism in everyday life. After the early release of prisoners it saw further demilitarisation and an amnesty for the OTRs - mostly republicans on the run, those who either escaped from or faced prison.

Yet, implicit in the delegates' presence in the Waterfront Hall, and in their hesitant but polite applause for Mr Trimble, was an acknowledgement that the nationalist-unionist consensual philosophy of the Belfast Agreement was the only way forward .

"Fine," they effectively said. "We support the agreement and we are glad the IRA has started decommissioning but given what has gone before don't expect us to be in party mood."

The tightrope for Mr Trimble was, without issuing ultimatums or deadlines, to make known that the UUP needs further IRA decommissioning to ensure that the agreement can bed down. He said he was content to leave the issue with the de Chastelain commission "but, as Bertie Ahern said last week, it will become an issue if nothing happens. In that context February when the commission's renewable remit expires will be significant."

And he implicitly warned that any unnecessary unionist hardballing on arms (which is what the UUC meeting will be about) would be counter-productive; it would damage the UUP and render the chances of further IRA moves on arms more unlikely.

"I caution those who want everything done immediately, don't make unionism pay an unnecessary price for what has to happen anyway. After September 11th anyone with any sense sees that the option of 'armed propaganda' has been exploded," he said.

His other message was that there is no alternative to the Belfast Agreement, which he described as "an honourable compromise". Anti-Agreement unionists had to understand that simple truth, he contended.

"It is simply not possible to run Northern Ireland on a basis that excludes 40 per cent plus who regard themselves as nationalists. Like it or not, by fair means or foul, Sinn FΘin does have 20 per cent of the vote. The need to find an accommodation will not go away."

The vast majority of delegates understood the inescapable logic of his argument. Mr Trimble's challenge is to convince a good majority of the 860 members of the Ulster Unionist Council of its central truth at the same venue on Saturday week.