Twenty four hours to go and the latest battle between David Trimble and the anti-Belfast Agreement bloc of Ulster Unionism is for the votes of the 100 or so waverers who will decide the outcome of tomorrow's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council in the Waterfront Hall in Belfast.
The Yes and No wings reckon they have solid phalanxes of support that are unshiftable. "If Gerry Adams drove up to the Waterfront before this vote with a lorry load of Semtex, 40 per cent would still vote against David Trimble," said one leading sceptic last night.
The Ulster Unionist Council has held many extraordinary meetings since the Belfast Agreement of April 1998. On each occasion Mr Trimble has seen off his effective challengers, chiefly represented by senior Ulster Unionists such as Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, the Rev Martin Smyth, Mr David Burnside and Mr William Ross, as well as the vocal younger Turks of the party.
At the time of writing there are two motions tabled for tomorrow's meeting, although Mr Donaldson has been talking of proposing a compromise aimed at bringing the Yes and No sides together. The notion of the anti-agreement Lagan Valley MP as a reconciler, however, has met with quite a cynical response from his opponents. "It's a try-on, it won't work," said a Yes strategist.
One should not totally discount Mr Donaldson's attempt at achieving consensus but it does seem highly unlikely because the differences between him and Mr Trimble are so fundamental.
The central distinction between the No and Yes motions is that the former lays down a deadline for decommissioning and the other doesn't.
Mr Trimble's argument is that imposing deadlines, or declaring his hand on how he will continue to exert pressure on republicans, would be counter-productive and only serve the interests of Sinn FΘin and the IRA. He will repeat that it was his strategy, and not that of the anti-agreement bloc, that helped compel the IRA to move on arms.
There is harmony of opinion however between the two motions in the complaint that - paraphrasing the recent words of Northern Secretary Dr John Reid - Northern Ireland is fast becoming a "cold house" for unionism. Mr Trimble will try to exploit this unanimity to his cause.
The sceptics have laid down a February 1st deadline for movement on IRA arms and a March 1st deadline for its completion. Dr Reid earlier this week portrayed this as wishful thinking. He indicated on Wednesday that he will introduce legislation to allow Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body extend its remit beyond February.
Mr Trimble on BBC last night rather archly wondered if this demand for complete decommissioning by March 1st issued by his internal opponents also included loyalist weapons.
In his speech to delegates tomorrow, Mr Trimble may find it useful to repeat the comments of party chairman Mr James Cooper at the UUP annual conference two weeks ago when he said: "Everyone in this party should recognise a victory when it stares us in the face instead of playing into the hands of our opponents by promoting internal disagreements."
It will serve Mr Trimble better if he can muster more enthusiasm for his position than was evident at the party conference. His speech then was cogent and powerful and made clear that he saw no alternative to the Belfast Agreement. But he delivered it flatly. Some passion will be required.
Odds at the moment would favour Mr Trimble tomorrow although some of the No unionists say that pro-agreement complacency and the Christmas factor could be his downfall. A Trimble supporter echoed this point. "It's hard to get people out at this time of year, which could suit the antis because hard-liners are always more motivated," she said.
Because of changes to constituency representation up to 890 unionists, instead of the usual 860, are entitled to attend the meeting. Most know how they will vote but there are about 100 undecided, and it is these who will determine the outcome.
In the last crucial UUC vote in October Mr Trimble won with 54 per cent of the vote. A senior member of the No camp predicted that Mr Trimble could lose tomorrow.
He also set the First Minister's target for tomorrow. "If Trimble gets more than 54 per cent then I think he will have earned some breathing space from us for a while, but I don't see it happening," he said.
Mr Trimble wasn't taking anything for granted last night but he sounded like a leader who believed he could command at least that level of support.