Nobody on the ground in Tipperary South is prepared to predict the outcome of Thursday's by-election with any confidence. Transfers will decide the result of the hard-fought political battle caused by the death of Labour TD Mr Michael Ferris, but determining the line-up after the first count, which will point to the eventual result, is not easy.
The consensus is that Fianna Fail's Mr Barry O'Brien will head the poll but fail to secure sufficient transfers to put him over the quota. Who follows next will be critical, with three strong candidates in contention. It could be the Independent, Mr Seamus Healy, who came close to unseating Mr Ferris in the 1997 general election. But unless he gets a substantial first preference vote, he may find himself short of transfers to secure the seat.
The significant transfer pattern is expected to involve Labour and Fine Gael. Should Mrs Ferris be ahead of the Fine Gael candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, his transfers could elect her. Alternatively, if Mr Hayes outpolls Mrs Ferris, her transfers could elect him.
Tipperary South is a constituency of contrasts. There is the fertile land of the Golden Vale, and the picturesque town of Clonmel, with its brightly-coloured shopfronts and general air of prosperity.
But the story is different elsewhere, notably in Carrick-on-Suir and Tipperary town, which have been visibly bypassed by the Celtic Tiger. The constituency has been the recipient of the inevitable by-election "goodies", not least an announcement by the Minister for Health, Mr Martin, of a £15 million development at St Joseph's Hospital in Clonmel.
But they are unlikely to secure victory for Mr O'Brien, a Clogheen-based county councillor.
Clonmel-based Mr Healy increased his share of the vote from 10.1 per cent in the 1992 general election to 16.5 per cent. Mr Ferris's vote fell from the 20.9 per cent high of 1992, when voters swung massively behind Labour, to 16.1 per cent.
Mr Healy is focusing on economic issues. "The average disposable income in Tipperary South Riding is £7,379, which is the seventh lowest in Ireland," he says. "When Clonmel is removed from the equation, the people of west Tipperary have the lowest level of disposable income in Ireland." Mr Healy believes that economic factors, as well as the "sleaze factor", will ensure his election.
Fine Gael's strength lies in its impressive and experienced candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, from Golden, who will provide the best possible boost for Mr John Bruton's leadership if he wins the seat. Although the sitting Fine Gael TD, Ms Theresa Ahern, held her seat comfortably in the last general election, the party's share of the vote declined by 3.5 per cent to 24.1 per cent.
Earlier predictions that Mr Hayes would do badly have been revised, as Mr Bruton and the director of elections, Laois-Offaly TD Mr Charlie Flanagan oversee an energetic campaign. They point to Mr Hayes's spectacular performance in the Cashel electoral area in last year's local elections, when the party increased its share of the vote by 14 points and retained its three seats, despite the area having lost a seat.
Although she had been her husband's constituency secretary, Mrs Ferris says her decision to run was not easy. "I am very heartened by the response of voters. Sleaze was an issue early on, childcare is a big issue, as well as jobs," she says.
Mrs Ferris is fighting the by-election with her party in opposition, an advantage her late husband did not have in 1997, when Labour was part of the outgoing government and watched as the electoral tide, which yielded spectacular electoral gains in '92, went out.
The inevitable by-election swing against the government of the day, as well as the sympathy factor, could be enough to secure her victory in an anticipated low turnout. But nobody would be surprised if Mr Hayes or Mr Healy made it.
There are two other candidates, Ms Mary Heney, of the Christian Solidarity Party, who is standing on an anti-abortion ticket, and Mr Raymond McInerney, of the Natural Law Party, who says his priority as a TD would be to "dissolve the stress in Irish society".
