UK:DAVID CAMERON is hoping sweeping Conservative gains in today's local elections in England and Wales will show him now in serious contention to win the keys to 10 Downing Street in a general election.
As millions of voters prepare to go to the polls, meanwhile, a leading Labour think tank is accusing prime minister Gordon Brown of "neurotic under-confidence" and warning that his administration "risks being written off before its first anniversary".
The general secretary of Fabian Society, Sunder Katwale, dismisses suggestions of a challenge to Mr Brown's leadership, saying those "who did not put up when there was a chance to do so last year should shut up".
At the same time the Fabians say Mr Brown must reassemble "a winning coalition" and that after 11 years in power Labour's "calculus of risk" must change.
Rumblings about Mr Brown's leadership will inevitably resume should the Conservatives come anywhere near the optimum 200 council seat gains analysts say would confirm their current high standing in the national opinion polls. Ironically, Mr Brown's best hope for a respite after a difficult two months lies with Ken Livingstone's bid for re-election for a third term as London mayor.
Mr Livingstone has predicted he will win the city hall race and that Londoners will reject Conservative challenger Boris Johnson at the very last minute of decision.
In an interview with the Evening Standard yesterday Mr Livingstone conceded "Boris" had fought a strong campaign but suggested the Tory candidate would suffer from "the hovering pencil" syndrome as voters finally made up their minds. When faced with the choice, the incumbent mayor ventured, Londoners would decide Mr Johnson was too big a "risk" to take with the city's £11 billion budget: "I just think that although people may be toying with the idea of voting for Boris, when it comes to it they will decide they just can't do it. This is too serious for that."
While Mr Johnson countered that the Livingstone regime was jaded and that London was ready for "change", Mr Livingstone also suggested Mr Johnson's real motivation was to use the position of mayor to succeed Mr Cameron "and try to become prime minister".
Whether or not Mr Livingstone holds on in London, Mr Brown will be facing a bad night if he fails to make actual Labour gains in his first contests as leader.
According to election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the Elections Centre at the University of Plymouth, a loss of seats - and so a worse performance than Tony Blair's in the same contests four years ago - would amount to Labour's worst set of local election results since the nadir of Harold Wilson's government in 1968.
On this analysis, Conservative gains of between 100 and 200 seats "would be good enough" while showing Mr Cameron's party dominating the political landscape somewhat less than Labour did prior to Tony Blair's 1997 landslide.