Toning down triumphalism on Armagh's big day

The status of Armagh city as the ecclesiastical capital of Ireland is certain to be invoked, not once but several times, at this…

The status of Armagh city as the ecclesiastical capital of Ireland is certain to be invoked, not once but several times, at this morning's events inaugurating the North-South Ministerial Council. Do not expect Northern nationalists and republicans to play down the significance of the location, and the possibility that in the fullness of time the ecclesiastical capital could also become the political capital.

Unionists will be having none of this. The council is merely a practical, common-sense arrangement between two sovereign states, the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, to discuss matters of mutual interest, and there is no question of a united Ireland being on the agenda now or in the future. Every time a nationalist or republican uses the word "historic", a unionist will respond with the counter-adjective "modest".

Broad nationalist smiles will be matched by poker-faced unionist politeness. With the full complement of ministers expected to attend from Dublin and six SDLP and Sinn Fein ministers present from Stormont, the four Ulster Unionists will be heavily outnumbered on the day. The prospect of a group photograph seems unlikely - can you imagine the propaganda the Democratic Unionist Party and other "No" unionists would make of such a gift?

For nationalists the day will be heavy with symbolism; for unionists it will be on a par with a visit to the in-laws. Senior Ulster Unionist Party sources described it last night as a "necessary nonsense" and insisted their eyes were fixed instead on the British-Irish Council which holds its inaugural meeting in London on Friday.

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Mr Seamus Mallon will be on home ground and at his most eloquent; the Sinn Fein ministers will also be prominent. While northern nationalists and republicans may feel entitled to let themselves go, the Taoiseach will have to be more restrained. He is only too well aware of the sensitivities for unionists and the danger of bringing the UUP even lower in the polls than it is. Mr Ahern has shown himself alert to unionist feelings in the past - sometimes too much so, as far as republicans were concerned.

While there has been minimal razzmatazz from south of the Border, the significance of this day for the mainstream republican movement cannot be underestimated. For this unprecedented formal link between the two parts of the island they have entered a six-county Assembly at Stormont and conditionally accepted the existence, for the time being, of the Northern state they spent nearly 30 years trying to destroy. Mr David Trimble may have had considerable success - both on Good Friday last year and subsequently - in minimising both the number and the responsibilities of the cross-Border bodies but, as republicans see it, the principle of policy implementation on a North-South basis has been established and, out of this acorn, they believe a mighty oak can grow.

Senior republicans conceded there would be a lot more symbolism than substance in today's events, but substance grows out of symbolism. Boards to administer different implementation bodies will be approved and their make-up will be representative of the political traditions, North and South. A strong Cabinet representation from Dublin is expected. The fact that the two DUP ministers, Mr Peter Robinson and Mr Nigel Dodds, will not be attending will cause neither surprise nor ripples but, in time, colleagues on the Northern Executive are likely to challenge them over non-attendance at minister-to-minister meetings on, for example, transport, which is Mr Robinson's responsibility. Participation in the North-South Ministerial Council is one of the "essential responsibilities" of ministers in relevant posts, although the Belfast Agreement allows the First and Deputy First Ministers to make alternative arrangements where a colleague refuses to attend. Already this is looming as a likely key political battleground in coming months. It will be surprising if there is no loyalist protest at Armagh today, however.

"It should be a big day; it's been a long time coming," nationalist sources said. Provided nobody on the nationalist side gets a rush of blood to the head, mainstream nationalists believe the unionist contingent will be able to maintain its composure. The fact that Sir Reg Empey was the first of the Northern ministers to go south under the new arrangements rather than, say, a member of Sinn Fein, was seen as helpful in allaying the fears of the majority community in Northern Ireland, which has a lot of new political phenomena to get used to these days.

Pretty soon we will be running out of "historic occasions" and "defining moments" and it will be down to the difficult task of running Northern Ireland with a four-party coalition that contains a number of serious fault lines. Expect the Prime Minister to pay a Christmas visit on which his reception by shoppers in central Belfast could tell a lot. Rumours of a Clinton visit persist but the suggested dates have been pushed back to May 2000, when the referendum result will be two years old.

By that stage, if all goes according to plan, North-South ministerial contacts should be routine. The long-running saga over decommissioning may have reached some form of closure. There could be simultaneous moves by the security forces and the paramilitaries or the issue might lose a lot of its potency as the new system of government takes root.

The South African MP and former negotiator for the De Klerk government, Mr Roelf Meyer, said in Belfast last week that guns were too important an issue to be left to the gunmen and that politicians of all shades should take their places on the de Chastelain decommissioning body.

Potentially more damaging and disruptive in the short term, however, is the fate of the Patten Report on policing. The consultation period is now over and the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, is likely to give his response to the report in the new year. His political skills will be tested to the full on this issue, which could sink the ship of hope before it even gets out of port.