Mr John Bruton's future as leader of Fine Gael could hinge on the party's performance in the Tipperary South by-election on Thursday.
Despite Mr Bruton's claim yesterday that he would lead the party into the next general election, it is understood he will announce a reshuffle of his front bench next week in an effort to deflect any leadership challenges after a poor showing in recent opinion polls.
Several party sources said yesterday that if the by-election candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, does not poll well later this week, there may be a move against Mr Bruton. The Fine Gael spokesman on transport, Mr Ivan Yates, told The Irish Times last night he would not be a candidate in any leadership contest at any time in the future. He said he was happy to continue to support Mr Bruton as leader.
But he said if the party wanted to deal with the leadership issue after the by-election there were straightforward procedures in place to challenge the leadership.
There is widespread discontent within the party at Fine Gael's standing in the polls, unhappiness at the party's handling of its inquiry into payment to its politicians, and comments made by Mr Bruton about Michael Lowry being free to reapply for membership of Fine Gael if and when his tax affairs are sorted out.
There was further embarrassment for Mr Bruton yesterday when it was confirmed that the Fine Gael organisation in his constituency received a £1,000 contribution last month from Bovale Developments, the company currently embroiled in the Flood tribunal. The donation was for a fundraising dinner on May 11th last. Nobody from Bovale Developments attended the dinner. A party spokesman denied it was unwise to accept the contribution and said no individual in the party had benefited from it.
The clear front runner in any leadership battle would be the party's finance spokesman and Limerick East TD, Mr Michael Noonan. Mr Noonan said last night he would be spending the next few days campaigning for the party in Tipperary and did not want to comment on leadership matters.
Mr Yates said it was his opinion that Mr Hayes would do well on Thursday but he did not want to take away people's rights to question the leadership.
"It is quite possible, if we have a good result on Thursday, that people would say `What crisis?' But after the by-election the parliamentary party can reflect. The party would need to be on optimum performance in every respect going into the next election."
Mr Yates said he would continue to support Mr Bruton who had been an "excellent" Taoiseach. "I believe he has had a long record of excellent leadership and integrity. What happens if we change the leadership and don't go up in the polls?"
The party spokesman on Justice, Mr Jim Higgins, said Mr Bruton would be leading the party into the next general election. "It is just too bad if his honesty and integrity are seen as a handicap." Mr Higgins said there was no coup being hatched in the party. However, he urged caution in relation to a front-bench reshuffle leading into a general election.
Mr Bruton said yesterday rumours that he is being pushed out were a matter for the newspapers. He said as far as he was concerned he would be leader of Fine Gael up to the start of the next Dail when the Fine Gael leadership is confirmed by secret ballot after each election.
If there was to be a push against Mr Bruton it would have to happen very quickly after Thursday because the Dail rises on June 30th for the summer break. The last meeting of the parliamentary party will take place on Wednesday, June 28th.