OUR politicians return to the Dail on Wednesday week, sure of an election next year, but uncertain about when it will be and - critically - how it will come about. The Opposition can do little but prepare this week members of the FF front bench were in Monaghan and next week they will be in Westport to drum up enthusiasm. The PDs are busy identifying and selecting candidates and carrying out confidential polls in their key constituencies.
But it is the Government which will make the decision, and consequently the partners are the ones with the biggest worry. At present it seems they can't agree on when to go to the country or how to break up. Members of Fine Gael believe November 4th, 1997, is a good date to aim for, on the grounds that the longer they stay in Government, the better they will do.
Most argue, though, that to go to the wire like this is highly dangerous and will allow accusations about hanging on to power and being afraid of the electorate. While none of the three partners wants a row, there are growing indications that DL might make demands on social welfare that the others will be unable to accept, and they could pull out on the January Budget.
FG feels the best bet is for the three to hang together as a team. But then Labour has to keep its options open as it still believes a coalition with FF is possible. Labour is having its annual conference in April and FG in May so, bar a row, May/June is still the most likely time.
Meanwhile Labour, under strategist Fergus Finlay, is holding the first of four regional policy conferences in Dublin this weekend. The party maintains its fall has bottomed out and it will be uphill from now on.
Eastern promise THE special EU summit in Dublin on October 5th has discommoded no less a person than the Emperor of Japan, a man some still believe to be a living god. This serious state of affairs. has arisen because the president of the European Commission, Jacques Santer, had an appointment with Emperor Akihito on the very day he is now required to be in Dublin to discuss the IGC with the EU Commissioners.
Diplomatic and imperial moves are afoot to rearrange the meeting. Just the ticket LAOIS has gone football mad. Laois? Yes, says FG deputy Charlie Flanagan, the minor team are in the All-Ireland for the first time in 30 years and before that it was decades since they had seen Croke Park.
A farmer came to his clinic this week seeking a ticket for Sunday. Could he have Mary Robinson's seat, he asked, since she never arrived until just before the senior game and he would vacate it then. And how will I know you'll hand over the seat, asked Charlie. Sure wouldn't I be seen on the television if I didn't," said the farmer. Charlie says the farmer was deadly serious But I didn't tell him to get on to the Aras and neither did I get on to the Aras myself." Elephant man THE great and the good in Anglo-Irish affairs, the Toffs Against Terrorism as they are affectionately called, gathered for their annual discourse in Oxford last weekend.
The British Irish Association has been meeting since 1972 and although all deliberations come under what is known as Chatham House rules (i.e. participants can quote information but not sources), details of what transpired among the invited delegates - politicians, journalists and civil servants - always emerge.
Last weekend the mood at St John's College was remarkably gloomy. Last year the ceasefire, despite murmurings that the British were not doing enough to keep it alive, kept everyone buoyant. Now, Sir Patrick Mayhew admitted, things were worse than even his department realised.
Most of the debate is in the workshops and the socialising takes place in the bar. Professor John A. Murphy and the Northern Minister Michael Ancram led the singing. Ancram, easily the most popular of the Stormont Ministers, is a Catholic and a Scot so that seems to rule him out as Secretary of State when Mayhew steps down at the next election. Of course, general opinion is that the Tories will be out of power anyway and Tony Blair will appoint the Northern supremo.
Two amusing lines emerge. Ancram explained why, since he went to the NIO, he wears ties depicting elephants. Former British Minister Denis Healey told reporters that Labour was going to lose a by-election.
Why are you saying this, they asked, when you are canvassing? Because he said when you see an elephant on your doorstep you recognise it.
There are an awful lot of elephants in Northern Ireland says Ancram. Then there's the joke from Minister Proinsias de Rossa who, unlike his colleague Pat Rabbitte, is not readily known as a wit. He told the dinner on Friday night an old yarn. A person on their way into heaven sees a stooped man at the gate.
"I didn't know Dick Spring had died and gone to heaven." "No, that's God." said the angel, "he just thinks he's Dick Spring." When one of the toffs asked Irish officials if Dick would approve, they replied that Dick wrote the script himself.
A holy treat? ARE the following the holiest members of the Oireachtas? Or are they simply the best behaved and the most worthy of a little treat? It would appear they must be one or the other because they have been chosen by the whips to represent them on the all-party delegation at the beatification of Brother Edmund Rice, founder of the Christian Brothers, in Rome on October 6th. Thousands of Irish Catholics will be going.
The Oireachtas delegation will be led by the Minister for Education, Niamh Bhreathnach. FF will be represented by deputies Michael Woods, John O'Donoghue, Dermot Ahern and Joe Walsh; FG by Minister Sean Barrett Senator Joe Doyle and Deputy Phil Hogan; and Labour, the PDs and DL by deputies John Ryan and Peadar Clohessy and Senator Joe Sherlock respectively. All 11 are bringing their spouses except Senator Sherlock, who will be accompanied by his daughter.
Due to recent guidelines the Oireachtas information office says it can't give any details of the visit until after it has taken place. Reasons given include the dangers to members' property if it is known they are abroad. Quidnunc can reveal however that the trip is being paid for by the Government.
Fighting talk THERE was some surprise when gardai in Tralee forbade photographers to snap the Sinn Fein banner which was unfurled outside the golf club as the EU foreign ministers and their parties descended - much to the displeasure of many members who found themselves barred for the day in the interests of security - for dinner last Saturday night.
And what did this dreadful banner say? Malcolm Rifkind your time has come? Or Brits Out? Or even Tiocfaidh ar La? No, the banner confronting the mighty ministers, who were behind schedule and consequently missed the famous sunset called on the EU to please get involved in the Northern peace process.
Take the rap THE ad on the back cover of the current issue of Garda Review has raised a few eyebrows. It's for an album of rap rock by a US group called The Fun Lovin' Criminals.
If the title is not enough to get up the noses of regular readers of the magazine, this genre of music is notorious for being violently anti cop, sexually explicit and pro illegal substances. Indeed the hit single on the album goes by the title Scooby Snacks, which refers to a bank robbery which is drug induced, although, Quidnunc has been informed, on this occasion it is nothing more dangerous than Valium.
The album has already attracted a parental advisory warning in the US where responsible persons are very concerned about this kind of thing. This week Patrol, the rival garda publication, rang the record company concerned, EMI, looking for an ad too but they didn't specify which ad. Who is having the joke here - the gardai or EMI? Spring cleaning! THE redecoration work on Leinster House is going full steam ahead. Doors are down, carpets up, portraits removed and bars closed because not only does it have to be finished by September 25th. On that date the Dail returns after the summer hols; more importantly, it will be playing host to some of the most powerful men in the world - the 15 EU finance ministers and the governors of central banks, on this day week.
Last weekend Dick Spring showed off Kerry North to his foreign minister colleagues. Now it's the turn of Minister for Finance Ruairi Quinn to impress his European counterparts, their spouses and officials, with what his constituency has to offer. The finance council will take place in Dublin Castle all day Saturday.
That night the approximately 50-strong party will have dinner in the members' restaurant in Leinster House, a highly innovative idea particularly at a weekend when the house is closed. The guests will see the restored main hall with its splendid gold relief.
On Sunday they go to the National Gallery and Trinity College. Spouses get the opportunity to leave Ruairi's Dublin South constituency - they are being offered a city tour and a visit to Malahide Castle on Saturday.
Black Marx SHOM mishtake shurely? The new Guinness beer mats which carry on the current ad theme - riot everything in black and white snakes sense - have the following quotation on the back: All Property is Theft. Karl Marx. Problem is Marx didn't say it, Proudhon did.
Reversals of fortune A FORMER Meath football captain, FF MFP Jim Fitzsimons, remembers well the football talk he had with a former European Parliament colleague, the late Sean Flanagan. Flanagan captained the Mayo team which won the All-Ireland in 1951. Fitzsimons captained the Meath team which failed in 1962. "Many is the slagging he gave me over the years," says Jim, about how he won and I didn't. I wonder what he would be saying now that his son Dermot is playing for Mayo."