There's many a slip between the election and power

In her modest suburban house on the fringe of Jakarta, Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri waits in seclusion for the outcome of a complicated…

In her modest suburban house on the fringe of Jakarta, Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri waits in seclusion for the outcome of a complicated election process which could result in her becoming Indonesia's first woman president. But the election is only the start of a long and final struggle for the daughter of Indonesia's first and still revered leader, President Sukarno, who drew mammoth crowds of adoring fans during the election campaign.

While Indonesia has been hailed as the world's third-largest democracy following the success of Monday's election, the transfer of power will take several months and involve much wheeler-dealing.

The woman who was brought up in the presidential palace may have to wait until November before she knows if she will leave the white two-storey bungalow to return to the palace as president.

When President B. J. Habibie assumed office after President Suharto was ousted last year, he decreed a lengthy delay between Indonesia's first democratic elections in almost half a century and the choosing of a new president. The 462 newly elected members and 38 army nominees in the parliament will not be sworn in until July 29th and in August will begin formal debate on forming a new government. Only in November will the parliament, along with a 200-member upper house of regional and community appointees, select the new president.

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During that time Megawati's Indonesian Democratic PartyStruggle and the leaders of three Muslim-based parties, the National Awakening Party, the National Mandate Party and the National Development Party, plus other minor players, will have to try to form a coalition, as no party will have an outright majority. The possibility remains that the ruling Golkar party, despite its trouncing at the polls, may use its treasure chest and connections to buy off sufficient members of the electoral college to maintain its nominee, President Habibie, in power.

Until then the government, largely created by President Suharto, and some believe still susceptible to his influence, will continue to run the country.

Part of this is a high degree of expectation in a population which believes it has won the election. "Megawati will become president and bring clean government and make things better; I would die for her," said Ramelan, a construction worker, in a typical comment on the Jakarta streets yesterday. She represents hope for a better life. But those at the forefront of the reform movement in Indonesia will be impatient for quick changes, and Indonesia's poor believe their lot will now get better.

"If Golkar still maintains power, the political parties may accept that, but not the people," said political analyst Mr Muhammad Hikam. "Even if Megawati succeeds in forming her government, there still is the possibility that students may go to the streets, not because they disagree with Megawati but because they will demand that Megawati should do some kind of radical change like prosecuting Suharto and his family."

The wealth accumulated by the Suharto family during the last 32 years is at the centre of political debate in Indonesia. An inquiry into the Suharto family finances being conducted by the attorney general, Mr Andi Muhammad Ghalib is proceeding at a snail's pace, partly due to the weakness of civilian institutions after 32 years of authoritarian rule. The government has declined to ask foreign governments to freeze Suharto assets.

Time magazine last month caused uproar in Indonesia, when it valued the Suharto family holdings at $15 billion, and alleged that in 1998 President Suharto transferred nine billion dollars from a Swiss bank account to a more secure Austrian bank. On Monday, while the country rejoiced in democracy, intruders broke into the office of Time magazine's lawyers and stole documents pertaining to the investigation and a charge of corruption against the attorney general. It was a professional job with the thieves gaining entry through a hole drilled in the ceiling.

The role of army chief Gen Wiranto could be pivotal in deciding who will be the next president. President Suharto's former military aide, who has given loyal backing to President Habibie and who has been sensitive to popular demands for reform, is known to have political ambitions and has been nominated for vice-president by the main parties.

Mr Kwik Kian Gie, an economic adviser to Megawati who last night called for a speeding up of the presidential election process, has said that Wiranto is acceptable as vice-president.

If the negotiations become deadlocked, an even bigger prize might fall into Wiranto's lap - the presidency itself. It has not been forgotten in Jakarta that when President Suharto resigned last year, the general was by his side pledging that he would protect his personal security. Suharto may still manage to stay beyond the reach of the law, despite Indonesia's transformation to democracy.

But for now Indonesians are rejoicing in the dawning of a new era of democracy and the confounding of the predictions of widespread violence.

The old guard will have taken note of the popular support for Megawati and will be only too aware of the dangers of defying the people. For that reason, Megawati's move to the presidential palace seems assured, barring a shock result as the remaining votes are counted. She seems to know herself that this is her destiny. Megawati long ago began correcting anyone who asked her what she would do if she became president. "Not if," she would say. "When."