FIVE weeks ago Fine Gael was flying. John Bruton had scaled on precedented heights of popularity. The Rainbow Coalition had halved the 12 point gap separating it from the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats alternative government. With the wind at its back, the Coalition was threatening to sweep back to power.
Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats were on the defensive for the first time in months.
And then the Dunnes payments tribunal happened.
Fine Gael Ministers were called to Dublin Castle. And John Bruton was asked to explain discrepancies between evidence on party funding he gave to the beef tribunal and that involving Dunnes Stores. He hasn't stopped digging since. Every time the Taoiseach looked like laying down his shovel, he was prodded onwards to another explanation by Fianna Fail or the PDs. The hole has been transformed into a chasm.
Public attention has remained firmly focused on the funding shenanigans of Fine Gael Ministers and their party, to the virtual exclusion of others. The gloss went off Mr Bruton's public satisfaction rating. An eight point drop in popularity, to 55 per cent, reflects the public's reaction to his explanations, while support for the Fine Gael Party has dropped four points to 26 per cent.
It's not a disaster, but it is the kind of news that causes politicians to panic, especially with an election in plain sight.
On the basis that it took the Government parties three months to whittle down the Fianna Fail/ PD lead from 12 to 6 percentage points, is it now possible to bridge a new 12 point gap in a mere four weeks?
The fact that the support lost to the Rainbow option has tended to drift back into the "don't know" category is a hopeful sign, but it guarantees nothing. Next Tuesday Mr Bruton, Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa will have to bite on that bullet when they meet to review their options.
Bertie Ahern will be hugely relieved by the result. Fianna Fail had stood to suffer badly because of the payments allegedly made by Mr Dunne to the former party leader, Charles Haughey. And although Fianna Fail's core vote has drifted down to 36 per cent, when the "don't knows" are distributed, the party holds its March figure of 43 per cent.
The party's April ardfheis will have helped to bolster that support level. But Mr Ahern's careful firm handling of the payments controversy may have been critical.
By demanding new standards of ethical behaviour from all party members and by threatening expulsion for those found guilty of abusing their positions in the past, the new leader fireproofed himself against damage and set out his stall for the future. Support for the party recovered by three points in Dublin, to 39 per cent.
The success of Fianna Fail's damage limitation stance is reflected by the fact that, in such fraught circumstances, Mr Ahern is the only party leader to improve his satisfaction rating, even if it is only by a single point.
Labour increased its support level by a single point in this poll, to 12 per cent, with Democratic Left staying at 2 per cent. Dick Spring's satisfaction rating dropped by five points to 49 per cent, but this reflects his increased unpopularity with Fianna Fail supporters because of his rejection of a coalition arrangement involving their party.
In much the same way, Mary Harney's three point loss in public satisfaction, to 64 per cent, reflects working class objections to her view on the need for water charges.
Ms Harney will be disappointed that her party has failed to capitalise on the difficulties besetting the major parties. The PD support level is holding at 8 per cent overall, with a slight improvement in Dublin and a fall off in Munster, but the party must have hoped for better things given the blizzard of sleaze that has been loosed by the tribunal.
The Green Party gained a single point to 3 per cent, but it has failed to ignite the public imagination in the way that would be necessary if it is to make a breakthrough in this election.
Taken together, Fianna Fail and PD party support amounts to 51 per cent, while the aggregate vote for Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left comes to 40 per cent.
In choice of coalition arrangements, the margin grew to 12 points, with the Fianna Fail/PD option attracting 44 per cent support, as against 32 per cent for Fine Gael/Labour/Democratic Left. Twenty four per cent are either undecided or do not favour either option.
An election concentrates minds. The 17 per cent "don't knows" will be forced to choose, and the shape of the next government will emerge as the campaign gathers pace.
As of now, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats must be regarded as clear favourites to take over from the Rainbow Coalition. But the election must first be called. Only then will the voters grapple with the issues and look to the future. Anything could happen.
Next week will tell whether the Government parties have the nerve to throw the dice.