With 30 major shopping schemes in the pipeline, can the spending frenzy last, asks Arthur Beesley, Senior Business Correspondent.
Someone said it was "great for the country" when the Hermès handbag store opened in Brown Thomas last autumn. It prompted something of a rush on Grafton Street. Only the keenest and most well-heeled of fashion fiends go for Hermès - the most basic bag costs €800 and others cost more than €5,000 - but the demand seemed to confirm that the boom times were back.
Despite their complaints about the "rip-off" culture, high prices and poor value for money, Irish shoppers are spending more than ever. Central Bank figures show that Irish people spent €1.54 billion on their credit cards in the first two months of this year, €204 million more than in the same period in 2004. Indebtedness on credit cards breached the €2 billion threshold for the first time last January, €757 million more than at the start of 2002.
And for all the fuss about mega- developments such as the new shopping shrine at Dundrum in south Dublin, up to 30 more new and refurbished shopping centres are set to come on stream throughout the island in the next five years.
While consumers who have money to spend are not afraid to do so, developers and retailers are banking on the boom not ending any time soon.
The main factor behind the current shopping frenzy is the huge increase in wealth since the economy came out of the doldrums. With 400,000 more people in employment than in 1997 and unemployment at 4.4 per cent, frugal comforts have given way to the life deluxe. It seems the Irish are making up for their time at the dead end of the market with hardcore shopping and high-end taste.
Such vibrancy is in marked contrast to the scene in Britain, where some of the best-known names on the high street have been having a torrid time. As big-name brands lose their sheen, some experts say that consumption is no longer seen as aspirational. Yet if thrift is the new trend in Britain, parsimony hasn't been in vogue in Ireland since the hardiest days of the recession.
One million people visited Dundrum's new shopping centre in the fortnight after it opened in March. A further two million have visited since. If that suggests shopping is becoming the leisure activity of choice for a growing number of people - most of whom will never be in the Hermès league - professional observers caution against reading deeper significance into the phenomenon.
"I don't know if people are mystifying this too much. What's unusual about the Irish experience in the last 10 years is the speed at which it happened," says Prof Tony Fahey, a sociologist with the Economic and Social Research Institute. "I think that's what rising incomes and rising disposable income means, and that's what Ireland has had. We went from 70 per cent of average European GNP to over 100 per cent in a very short period. With that rate of increase in people's buying power, it would be surprising if you didn't have an increase in consumption."
The irony in all this is that many shoppers profess to be deeply unhappy about the service they receive and the prices they must pay. Well-travelled as they are, they often see the same or similar goods at cheaper prices elsewhere. Such points were underlined this week by the Consumer Strategy Group, which said in its final report that Ireland ranks highest in the euro zone for many consumer prices "but does not rank highest" for many business costs.
"The price gap - which is particularly noticeable in the case of internationally traded products - is not easy to justify. This price gap represents an immediate loss to consumers and, ultimately, a loss to the economy in terms of competitiveness, with a knock-on effect on employment and quality of life," the report states.
"While the term 'rip-off Ireland' could be regarded as emotive language, our analysis of prices leads us to conclude that Irish consumers are not getting a fair deal."
In addition, research commissioned by the group shows that consumers feel overwhelmingly that they are not getting value for money.
"Seven out of 10 consumers think that the price they pay for goods and services is not fair . . . This perception of poor value for money extends beyond a simple measure of price, to quality, choice, level of service, expectation, efficiency and innovation," it states.
YET STILL THEY spend. Retail sales in February grew at their strongest rate since the heady days of December 2001. Central Statistics Office figures for March, released yesterday, show continued growth year on year, albeit at a lesser rate. So besides money and easy access to credit, what explains the fondness for spending?
"Irish people in general like newness. They're very well-travelled. They're actually all over the world, and they have a high degree of knowledge of what's available in other marketplaces. When something's not available to them in their own market, it's sought after. I think it's a discerning market and it's one that is constantly changing," says Mike Shearwood, managing director for Britain and Ireland with the Zara fashion chain.
Spanish-owned Zara typifies the new breed of European retailer, which regards market research as a fine art and can bring some of the latest fashions to market within a fortnight. Like its contemporaries, such as the Swedish-owned H&M chain, Zara is making fast inroads in the Irish market.
Since its high-profile entry into the market in November 2003, the company has built up a total of eight outlets in Ireland. If shopping was never part of Ireland's self-image before, the Zara opening on Henry Street, Dublin, was accompanied by the heaving crowds that usually mark the presence of a pop star.
British as well as European retailers are now looking anew at a market in which they have always maintained a profitable presence. Notable developments are the opening of a House of Fraser store in Dundrum Town Centre and the arrival next autumn of the Harvey Nichols chain, in what will be one of its first openings outside Britain. If the proliferation of British brand names on shopping streets at home makes those streets seem less and less Irish, all the signs are that there's more to come.
"One of the issues at the moment is that UK retailers in particular, and some of the other foreign retailers, have seen the Irish market as a good opportunity and see it as a strong market," says Shearwood. "There's been a lot of development going on over here. There has been and there is at the moment. There's a lot of new development sites throughout the whole of Ireland. It's seen as attractive for retailers to come into the marketplace."
As entrants parade their "newness", the inevitable result is pressure on less nimble retailers. And not all Irish-owned retail groups can withstand the huge competitive pressures from their well-financed rivals.
For example, Senator Feargal Quinn's decision to sell Superquinn to a private consortium earlier this year was borne of the repeated frustration of being outbid on the sites his group wished to acquire for expansion. Superquinn's hard-won reputation for quality was not enough to secure the new sites it needed to grow the business. Under pressure from deep German discounters such as Aldi and Lidl, Superquinn also had to face competition from an emboldened Tesco - with new product lines in clothing and CDs and 24-hour opening - and the ever- combative Dunnes Stores.
Some Irish retailers have left the high street altogether, among them Compustore, the ESB group of stores and the Bewley's café chain, which lost money in spite of its well-known brand and the increasing tendency of consumers to stop for coffee when shopping.
As cash-rich, time-poor consumers demand more and more convenience, there have been other casualties.
"Changes in lifestyle and different buying patterns have meant that specialist shops, such as butchers, bakery shops and greengrocers, have all lost market share," says the Consumer Strategy Group report.
If this suggests that it's not all rosy for Irish retailers, the Ibec lobby group, Retail Ireland, also points out that wages in the sector are 28 per cent higher than in the North and 60 per cent higher than in Spain. But in a climate where no less than 24 retail investment projects are already underway or in preparation in the Republic, and four more in the North, it appears that businesses are building for growth. According to an analysis prepared by a firm of property advisers, such developments will fill more than 525,000 square metres of space in locations as diverse as Letterkenny, Limerick, Drogheda, Waterford, Naas and Cork. While that's enough floor space to fill the grass area of Croke Park almost 40 times, it does not account for warehouse stores, a growing phenomenon, and any new retail superstores.
With the cap on the size of retail outlets gone, the way is open for superstore operators to develop non-food outlets in any of the eight locations designated as "gateway" towns by the Government. Attention in this regard has focused on Ikea, earmarked for a development to tie in with the Ballymun regeneration project in north Dublin.
SO CAN IT last? Or will too many retailers seeking to make too much money in Ireland eventually find that there isn't enough cash to go round? And will the go-go attitude to spending continue?
"There doesn't appear to be any slowdown in consumer spending, that's obvious," says Shearwood. "But there are a lot of new players coming into the marketplace. And it's a relatively small population, if you take Ireland as a whole, for the number of retail developments that are on the cards. Of those, inevitably you're going to have to some failures."
Still, economists point out that the fundamental factors behind the boom remain solid. While niggling fears of an interest-rate hike indicate that cheap mortgages are never guaranteed, the release of some €14 billion into the economy next year from the Government's Special Savings Incentive Account (SSIA) scheme will provide yet another fillip to the market.
Economist Philip O'Sullivan, at Goodbody Stockbrokers, believes the outlook is good for the sector.
"The areas of the economy that have experienced the lowest levels of inflation in recent years are the ones where price competition is most prevalent, such as food, clothing, footwear and furnishings," he says. "Clearly, these would be the principal categories that would be found in large-scale retail developments.
"While the pricing environment alone is supportive of demand, it is worth also noting that average industrial earnings increased by 4.8 per cent in 2005, providing more money for Irish consumers to spend."
O'Sullivan does not see an interest-rate hike as a threat to spending patterns.
"In terms of the interest-rate outlook, due to the lacklustre performance of the leading euro-zone economies, any future increase in rates would be quite modest," he says.
With the Government-backed SSIAs set to mature in 2006 and 2007, O'Sullivan says retailers are poised to see a significant improvement in demand from Irish consumers.
"This is supported by the fact that the average payout to each account-holder, which will be in the region of €14,500, suggests that consumer goods will perform particularly strongly as a result of the release of funds," he says. "The retail areas which are likely to enjoy the biggest increases in demand, taking the average payout per account-holder into account, would appear to be the motor trade, the DIY sector and also the tourism industry."
For all that, Davy Stockbrokers said in a recent note that a bigger proportion than might be expected will be recycled into other savings products.
When the economic slowdown brought an end to the glory days of double-digit growth, all the talk was about engineering a soft landing. With the economy back in the fast lane, the talk now is of the Celtic Tiger, Mark II. The Tiger is shopping.
Cash flow: where we spend our euro
One of the most striking features of recent consumer spending figures is the continued fall-off in the value and volume of sales in pubs.
On a steady decline since September 2001, the value of bar sales fell by 4.5 per cent in the year to the end of March while the volume of sales fell by 5.8 per cent.
While this is bad news for publicans, the figures, released yesterday, suggest a continued growth in sales of big-ticket items such as new cars, which grew 7 per cent by volume in March. The fastest-growing category was hardware, paint and glass, while footwear, clothing and pharmaceutical sales also grew strongly.
Sales of electrical goods, furniture, lighting and books and newspapers were down in March when compared with the same month last year.
The value of food, drink and tobacco sales was up by 5.5 per cent year on year in March, a figure roughly on a par with the overall rise in the value of sales, which were up 5.6 per cent in March compared with the same month last year. This was 1.4 per cent lower than the increase in February, itself the highest since December 2001.
Big spenders: major plans
2005: Cork: Ballincollig Centre, 18,581 square metres Drogheda: Scotch Hall, 25,581sq m
Limerick: Jetland Centre, 12,754sq m
Sligo: Quayside, 9,536sq m
2006
Dublin: Ilac Centre refurbishment, 1,394sq m; Beacon Court, Sandyford, 22,001sq m
Naas: Monread Centre, 20,001sq m
Newbridge: Whitewater Centre, 40,878sq m
2007
Kilkenny: MacDonagh Junction, 18,581sq m
2008
Drogheda: Scotch Hall (phase two), 12,667sq m
2009
Dublin: Liffey Valley (phase two), 20,001sq m;
Ballymun Town Centre, 30,001sq m