The people have spoken. Now it's over to the politicians - for the moment. The next task facing the parties in Northern Ireland is to draw up their lists of candidates for the elections to the new assembly on June 25th.
Most interest will focus on the Ulster Unionist Party. How many of its candidates will be pro-agreement and how many will be known to have voted No in last Friday's poll? Mr David Trimble told The Irish Times last week that the important thing was that all candidates should be "pro the party" and committed to the UUP's policy of making the assembly "work for the benefit of the people of Northern Ireland".
The UUP's constituency associations are masters in their own houses, but they can be expected to take guidance from the Glengall Street machine. SDLP sources say there will be keen competition for nominations to run for the party in the elections. Would-be candidates are no doubt motivated by idealism but there are material rewards for the successful ones in the form of an expected £30,000 salary plus expenses and allowances.
There will be keen interest to see what voting arrangements, if any, are made between the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
On the unionist side, given that the two party leaderships were at odds during the referendum campaign, the prospects for a formal UUP-DUP pact do not look good, but that does not preclude the possibility of local arrangements for the purpose, say, of minimising the number of nationalist seats. There is also speculation that SDLP voters, for example, might give their lower transfers to pro-agreement unionists and vice versa. The elections will be conducted by proportional representation in 18 six-seater constituencies and it is expected each successful candidate will have three substitutes who will be eligible, in order of preference, to fill the seat if the sitting member dies or retires. This would have the effect of avoiding by-elections that might upset the entire balance of forces in the assembly.
Members of the assembly will take one of three designations: Unionist, Nationalist or Other. Key decisions will require, as a minimum, the support of 60 per cent of those present and voting, including at least 40 per cent of the unionist members and 40 per cent of the nationalists. The assembly is expected to hold its first meeting in early July and it will have to elect its chair and deputy chair and the first minister and deputy first minister of the new administration. These are expected to be the leaders of the Ulster Unionist and SDLP groups.
Up to 10 ministries are provided for in the agreement and these will be filled in proportion to party strengths. There will, no doubt, be a major dispute over Sinn Fein's right to take portfolios in view of its association with the IRA and the pledge of adherence to non-violent means that each wouldbe minister must take. There are difficulties for anti-agreement members who may be eligible to become ministers as they would be required to pledge themselves "to work in good faith to bring the new arrangements into being". As well as a minister, each government department will have a committee of the assembly to monitor its operations.
The First "external" task facing the assembly is to send representatives to the North-South ministerial council to negotiate with Dublin - presumably in the person of the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews - on areas for cross-Border co-operation and the establishment of implementation bodies in at least six of these areas.
The anti-agreement unionists in the assembly will be working hard to prevent these negotiations from taking place or to sabotage them at an early stage. However, the agreement sets out a strict deadline of October 31st by which this preliminary work must be completed. The key weapon for anti-agreement unionists will be the provision in the agreement for a "petition of concern" brought by 30 members of the assembly to have a particular matter designated a "key decision" requiring the approval of the 60 per cent weighted majority based on cross-community consensus.
Legislation will have to be introduced at Westminster and in the Oireachtas to provide for the formal establishment and transfer of powers to the assembly and its executive. This is likely to be completed by the end of this year or early next year. Until then, the assembly and the executive will have a transitional or "shadow" existence.
The agreement specifies that the North-South council and the assembly "are mutually interdependent, and that one cannot successfully function without the other". The British-Irish council, the British-Irish intergovernmental conference and the cross-Border agencies are other essential elements in this arrangement.
Thus, if the council is aborted, the assembly will fall. If the new institutions are stillborn, the changes in the Republic's Constitution will lapse. Should the assembly and the council collapse, the new versions of Articles 2 and 3 will not become operative: the deadline is May 1999, but this can be extended by law.
British constitutional legislation on Northern Ireland also has to be changed: this includes the repeal of the Government of Ireland Act 1920. The British-Irish council, representing parliaments and assemblies in the two islands, has to be established and the new cross-Border implementation bodies must begin to function. A standing joint secretariat of civil servants from both parts of the island has to be established to service the North-South council and there will be a separate secretariat for the British-Irish council.
There are other deadlines to be met. The regulations providing for decommissioning procedures are to be made by the end of next month. That does not mean we will see actual decommissioning taking place - only that schemes will be in place for the destruction or disabling of weapons and explosives. Participants in the agreement have promised to "use any influence they may have" to achieve total decommissioning of paramilitary arms within two years.
The commission on policing headed by the former Northern minister and Hong Kong governor, Mr Chris Patten, has to publish its final report "no later than summer 1999". Paramilitary prisoners whose organisations are on a "complete and unequivocal ceasefire" are set to be released within two years and legislation giving effect to this is to be enacted by the end of June. A review of the criminal justice system is to be completed by autumn next year. A new Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and an Equality Commission are to be set up. Dublin has undertaken to "further strengthen the protection of human rights in its jurisdiction" and to establish a Human Rights Commission in the Republic, which will co-operate with its northern counterpart. Measures to assist victims of the Troubles are an important part of the agreement. Economic and cultural development will be promoted, including the fostering of the Irish language. A consultative civic forum is to be established, representing the business, trade union and voluntary sectors. There are proposals for a possible north-south parliamentary forum as well as a body representing "civil society" in both parts of the island.
The people will speak again on June 25th. Their choices for membership of the assembly will determine whether that body can function effectively and, consequently, whether the North-South council and its implementation agencies can operate as intended. There are big battles ahead.