Politics in 2008 will be shaped by the EU treaty referendum, and by when the Taoiseach decides to step down, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
Normally, it would be safe to assume that the year after a general election would be a quiet one in politics, particularly as the Government that emerged from the 2007 contest has a very secure majority in the Dáil. However, that assumption is already looking very shaky and 2008 could be as exciting a year as we have had for some time.
For a start, we are going to have a referendum on the EU constitution and, more than likely, another one on children's rights. Running in parallel with the referendum campaigns, the Mahon tribunal will be inching towards the finishing line and a steady stream of interesting and potentially destabilising revelations can be expected.
On top of that, speculation about the Taoiseach's future intentions is bound to increase as the year wears on. His announcement, shortly after the formation of the current Government, that he was unlikely to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election has added a great deal of spice to the political stew.
The longer Ahern remains as leader, the more the speculation about his departure date and his likely successor will intensify. While the general expectation is that he will lead on until after the European and local elections in June 2009, nobody is sure what will happen. The political saga that developed around the handover from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown in Britain is evidence of how the leadership issue can dominate political life.
THE FIRST THING on Ahern's agenda is to win the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - as the EU Reform Treaty, formerly the EU Constitutional Treaty - has finally come to be called. It is going to be a tough battle and nobody in Government, or in Opposition for that matter, is underestimating how difficult it is going to be.
An Irish Times/ TNS/mrbi opinion poll in November showed the scale of the task facing the Yes campaign in the months ahead. Support for the Yes side had slipped from 46 per cent in March 2005 to 25 per cent by late 2007, while the No side had experienced a modest increase to 13 per cent. The trend is all wrong and it will be some task to reverse it.
It was fine when the new treaty could be presented as Bertie Ahern's achievement but, although almost all the key elements of the constitutional treaty negotiated under his stewardship remain in place, it is no longer perceived as something Ireland should be proud of. The rejection of the constitution by the French and Dutch voters has tarnished its provisions and left doubts in people's minds about what it is worth.
Another problem is that it is difficult to explain the detail of the new treaty to the voters. The key provisions relating to qualified majority voting at EU Council of Ministers meetings are designed to make the running of the union more efficient. In the long run this will also make it more comprehensible, to ordinary voters but it will be hard to get people to engage with it.
The central problem is that there is no core big idea to enthuse supporters of the EU. The Government's decision to opt out of the justice and home affairs provisions, at least for the first three years, has removed a potential problem for the Yes campaign but it has also removed a potentially galvanising aspect of the treaty as far as many voters are concerned. If the treaty could have been portrayed as party of an EU-wide effort to deal with international drugs traffickers and people traffickers, which indeed is what the justice and home affairs provisions are designed for, it might have had relevance for the voters. Instead, the nit-picking lawyers got their way and Ireland opted out.
While getting the Yes side motivated will be a problem for the Government, the No side will be as committed as ever and will go into battle one more time with arguments, dusted down from previous campaigns, suggesting that Ireland will lose out on all fronts if the treaty is accepted.
As Ireland is the only country committed to holding a referendum on the treaty, the rest of the EU will be looking on anxiously to see what we do. If we say No, it will not only be a severe embarrassment for the Government, it will raise some fundamental question about our future relationship with our European partners. Still, if Fianna Fáil can get its vote out and Fine Gael and Labour voters follow their leaders, the referendum can be carried. But if they fail to mobilise their supporters it could easily be lost, with profound consequences long into the future.
Ahern is totally committed to getting his referendum passed but his hugely impressive general election record does not extend to referendums. He has lost two important ones - Nice 1 and the abortion referendum - and, while he has won another seven, most were on non-contentious issues which did not require much argument.
It will not become clear for some time whether the children's rights referendum will be held on the same day. It depends on whether the Oireachtas committee, under the chairmanship of Mary O'Rourke, can come up with a consensus view on the wording of the constitutional change. If there is consensus, the two may be held on the same day, but if the parties do not agree, that is highly unlikely.
In any case, some Ministers are worried that the children's referendum could spark a reaction from the Catholic right that might feed in to some of the anti-EU groups and could actually lead to a bigger No vote in both contests. The chances are that the EU vote will be held on its own.
AS FOR THE Mahon tribunal, there is no knowing how it will turn out. The tribunal has received an extension from the summer to the autumn for concluding its public hearings. The big question is when it will report, because that could have a bearing on the Taoiseach's departure date. Given the slow pace of the hearings, a report could drift into 2009, but, with three judges hearing the evidence, it should be ready before the end of the year. That will leave Ahern with a fine political calculation to make. Should he step down ahead of the report, in case it makes a negative finding, and serves as a signal for the wolves to start circling?
On the other hand, he may calculate that the tribunal does not have grounds for a negative report and there is no reason why he should change plans and step down before the European and local elections in 2009.
One source of comfort for Ahern is that there is no sign of a caucus developing in Fianna Fáil that is actively working to get him out. If anything, the opposite is the case because his anointed successor, Brian Cowen, has set his face against internal division and Cowen's potential rivals would like to see Ahern staying on in the hope that the current front-runner may slip back before the race begins in earnest.
Cowen will also have to make a careful calculation about whether he can afford to allow the passing of the baton to be postponed indefinitely.
If things get tough for Ahern as the year wears on, but there is no sign of any movement on the leadership front, Fianna Fáil TDs might become restless. The Tánaiste might not want to stage a confrontation with his leader, but some of those close to him might not be as patient.
For the moment, though, Ahern has a free hand to pick the time of his departure. There is an axiom that all political careers end in failure because leaders rarely quit while they are ahead. It is not usually in the nature of the political beast to walk away when things are looking up. Ahern may prove the exception and surprise everybody by stepping down in 2008 but it would not be wise to bet on it.