NEARLY ONE year after an army crackdown on demonstrators in Bangkok killed 91 people and left 1,400 injured, Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej announced this week that he was dissolving parliament and elections will take place on July 3rd. The election looks set to be a close call.
Opinion polls show that Oxford-educated prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party trails the opposition Puea Thai party. Puea Thai is effectively an organ of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who lives abroad to avoid a jail sentence imposed in absentia for corruption. Mr Thaksin was ousted by a bloodless coup in 2006.
The government has pushed a message of reconciliation since the crackdown and in a best-case scenario the polls could bring peace to southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.
However if the outcome of the elections is contested, there could be fresh clashes between the government and Red Shirt protesters, the urban and rural poor who support Mr Thaksin.
With military units staging shows of strength in the capital in recent weeks, and Red Shirts holding small protests around Bangkok, the city is rife with rumours of another coup. The army denies it is planning a putsch but there have been 18 military coups since 1932.
Thailand has been in political crisis since the 2006 putsch. The process of dissolving parliament was delayed by the poor health of the king, who is revered in Thailand and popular on all sides.
However, the 83-year-old monarch has been in hospital since September 2009 and there are concerns his succession may be problematic in the context of ongoing political tension. Public discussion of the monarchy is limited by strict lèse majesté laws that carry a penalty of up to 15 years in prison.
Mr Abhisit’s coalition came to power late in 2008 after some parliamentary moves which appeared to be orchestrated by the army.
The previous pro-Thaksin party was disbanded for electoral fraud, and for eight days the Yellow Shirts, a monarchist group bitterly opposed to Mr Thaksin, occupied Bangkok’s main airports.
Mr Abhisit’s Democrats have not won an election in 20 years and he suffers from an elitist image that does not help him with the country’s poor, who comprise the bulk of the electorate.But there are signs that Mr Abhisit has galvanised party support by keeping the economy strong and implementing policies and subsidies to help the poor.
Puea Thai is disorganised and has no real leader, although Mr Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra is seen as a prime candidate.
But the former PM’s lingering popularity should not be underestimated, especially around his stronghold of Chiang Mai.
The Red Shirts remain aggrieved at the violent manner in which lengthy occupation was ended. They remain under pressure from authorities, who have raided pro-Thaksin radio stations in recent weeks.
Opinion polls cited by the Bangkok Post show Puea Thai the most likely to win an election. One poll, by the National Institute of Development Administration, showed the party securing 23.36 per cent of the vote, compared with 20.20 per cent for the Democrats.
In another poll, by Assumption University, 36.4 per cent said they would vote for Puea Thai, and 34.1 per cent for the Democrats.
“We know that there is a slim chance of national reconciliation after the election whether the Democrats or Puea Thai win the election and heads the new administration, yet we stick to voting for either of the two arch-rival parties,” wrote analyst Veera Prateepchaikul, a former editor of the Bangkok Post.