Thai premier certain of victory after campaign marked by many abuses

THAILAND: Thailand's polling day was a dry affair, much like an Irish Good Friday, writes Clifford Coonan in Hua Hin

THAILAND: Thailand's polling day was a dry affair, much like an Irish Good Friday, writes Clifford Coonan in Hua Hin

Election Day in Thailand feels like Good Friday in Ireland. The sale of alcohol was forbidden yesterday and many of the farang, or foreigners, stocked up on Singha beer ahead of the 24-hour dry spell.

The ban was strictly enforced. Police went to restaurants and bars with video cameras to keep an eye on what was being imbibed. Hotels were allowed to serve alcohol to foreign guests in their rooms, leading to much carousing on the balconies of my resort hotel in Hua Hin, on the eastern coast.

The Prime Minister, Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, and his Thai Rak Thai party are certain to win the election but the poll has implications for the region.

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There are still many in the country who do not like the populist authoritarian style of government of this billionaire businessman turned politician; the alcohol ban being one example of his style.

The Thais like to party but are not given to the binge drinking of northern Europeans. However, they do get fairly aggressive with drink, said one waitress, apologising for not being able to bring a cold beer.

"The problem is that Thai people like to drink too much on special occasions, like this election. There is a lot of disagreement about this vote. And this can lead to fighting. Haven't you seen Thai boxing? It can get pretty violent." Thais are divided between those who admire Mr Thaksin's strong brand of leadership and those who want a more open, democratic approach to running this successful southeast Asian country.

Mr Thaksin's assured performance in the aftermath of the tsunami which wrecked large areas of southern Thailand - very publicly doling out aid and co-ordinating relief efforts - has helped his election enormously.

And he has claimed much of the credit for Thailand's success at emerging from the economic doldrums following the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

As one of Thailand's richest men, Mr Thaksin has made use of his billions to run his election machine, with resources that the opposition Democrats can only dream of. And the sheer strength of his personality has been a big bonus among the rural poor. However, he has also earned the ire of many, including the powerful urban middle class.

As part of the war on drugs many alleged drug dealers were killed rather than put on trial. Although a popular move, it also prompted fears for the rule of law.

The election has come at the end of a dirty campaign. The chairman of Thailand's election commission, Mr Wasana Permlap, has admitted that cheating and fraud was widespread.

In the province of Chiang Mai, an alleged fraudster was found with 60,000 baht (approximately €1,200) in cash, as well as a list of 116 eligible voters and video compact discs with election information. One election monitoring group said it had received 123 serious fraud complaints in the run-up to the election. Forty-eight were against Thai Rak Thai, Mr Thaksin's party, with five complaints against the Democrats.

A survey of Thailand's 400 constituencies showed that a candidate needed to buy 44,025 votes to buy victory. Apparently, the going rate for a vote varied between 500 baht (€10) to 2,000 baht (€40) in key swing constituencies.

"This election will be the worst in our history, with the party in power dominating the media. The election commission has failed in its task of monitoring politicians," said Mr Kanin Boonsuwan, a former constitutional draughtsman.

Parties pulled out every dirty trick, from fake letters alleging cheating by opponents to threatening voters. Cameras were banned in polling stations to stop people photographing their ballot sheets so they could prove how they voted to their vote buyers.

Hill tribes in Chiang Rai province will have proved an important swing vote which will most likely have favoured the Mahachon party, after one of its canvassers, an Akha hill tribesman, Narong Pansaikerd, was shot dead on January 18th, apparently by rivals. Mr Pansaikerd's murder made normal canvassing difficult, forcing the party workers to lobby for votes in groups of 30 people in five-truck convoys.

Another issue was the violence in southern Thailand between Muslims and Buddhists. There has been a concerted effort to win support for the army among suspicious Muslims.

The Muslim community in the south is afraid of the army since scores of Muslim protesters were killed during a demonstration in front of Tak Bai police station in October. Six demonstrators were killed during the protests, while 78 others died in transit to a military camp.