Tell-tale signs of serious food shortage to be seen everywhere in North Korea

My interpreter, Mr Kim, became emotional when we entered the room where the wax effigy of North Korea's "great leader", Kim Il…

My interpreter, Mr Kim, became emotional when we entered the room where the wax effigy of North Korea's "great leader", Kim Il Sung, is displayed against a background of patriotic music. It is difficult for foreigners to understand how an elderly leader whom he never knew could have such an effect on an educated and intelligent twentysomething.

I was touring the International Friendship Exhibition in the beautiful Myohyang mountains, the centre's magnificence and the natural beauty at odds with the human tragedy of today.

Through a combination of natural disasters and political and economic isolation, the country cannot feed its people. Floods three years ago virtually wiped out agricultural production. At best only 20 per cent of the land is arable anyway. Today it is estimated that perhaps 70 per cent of the country's needs are being met internally. The balance is only partially supplied by food aid from the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

The food aid is concentrated on the most vulnerable people - the very young, the elderly and pregnant mothers. But those outside this category have to fend for themselves. Worst hit are factory towns on the east coast. Rural communities fare slightly better, as they have better traditional coping mechanisms and co-operative farmers can keep some of their produce. Pyongyang is also likely to be up the priority list for food supply, as it is the country's window for foreigners.

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The small agricultural sector bears witness to decades of intensive mechanised farming in the attempt to extract maximum yields from a relatively small amount of arable land. Production peaked in the early 1980s when 75,000 tractors were in use and 650,000 tonnes of fertiliser imported per year. By 1998, due to fuel and spare parts shortages, only a fifth of the tractors were functioning and under 300,000 tonnes of fertiliser was available. The government objective is to restore agricultural self-sufficiency by 2001. But this depends on $300 million in international support. In the longer term, it is difficult to be optimistic that North Korea will attain self-sufficiency in food. The UN says an increase in grain production of 50 per cent from only 1.4 million hectares of arable land would be needed, as well as a massive input of seed, fertilisers and agro-chemicals, bought with hard currency the country cannot generate.

Concern has been working in Korea for the last two years in a variety of programmes including:

Production of winter anoraks for children and agricultural workers;

Intensive cropping programmes (over 10,000 acres) of potatoes, spring barley, spring wheat, winter wheat, soya bean;

Providing 2 million sq m of plastic sheeting for nursery beds of rice and maize crops;

Constructing 300 greenhouses for horticultural production for vegetable production to add two more crops (autumn and spring).

We intend to expand the programme to embrace animal husbandry and yoghurt and cheesemaking. Soon we will begin making soap and other initiatives under consideration are making wellington boots, tyres for agricultural machinery and peat harvesting.

Working in North Korea is a somewhat surreal experience. It is difficult to get used to a closed and militarised society. On the other hand, the calibre of the civil servants we deal with is very high. There is no evidence of corruption in the public distribution system, although there may be a hierarchy of priorities for distribution which we just do not know about and might not be happy with if we did.

It is not easy to understand the mentality of the North Koreans, their adherence to the philosophy of Juche, a sort of oriental Sinn Feinism mixed with Marxism-Leninism, or their cult of personality leadership vested in the late Kim Il Sung and carried on today through his son Kim Jong Il.

In his book on the Korean war of the 1950s, T.R. Fehrenbach states: "Koreans are neither Chinese, Manchu, nor Japanese, but always, shrouded by their hills and bordering seas, the people of the hermit kingdom wished to be left in peace. The wish is hopeless, for Korea is a buffer state."

Four times in the last century the great powers of Russia, China, Japan and the US have fought strategic wars on Korean soil. This does not justify the closed society that is North Korea today but it does perhaps help one to understand the isolationist and defensive mindset.

There is no accurate information on the numbers of people who have died, directly or indirectly, from hunger in the last three years. Assessments have been made by journalists - based on the accounts of refugees crossing in to China - who put the death toll at up to three million. The consensus among NGOs is that the real figure is likely to be somewhere between a half and one million.

The 10,000 acres planted by Concern have done well and the crops are of good quality. But in Anju country they harvested the wheat three weeks before it was fully ripe.

In Pyongsong, the potatoes were being lifted even though another fortnight would make a big difference. The tell-tale signs of serious food shortage are everywhere to be seen for those who know where to look.