IRISH AGRICULTURE can increase output over the next seven years without damage to the environment, according to the agriculture and food development authority.
Teagasc yesterday published nine “road maps” covering the developments required for each of the major enterprises to 2018.
Teagasc director Prof Gerry Boyle said an increase in national milk production of 43 per cent to 7,101 million tonnes could be carried out with a reduction of 16 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions per kilogramme of milk produced.
He said proper use of grass, breeding programmes and fertilisers could bring this about, giving Ireland a competitive advantage
Tom Kelly, head of knowledge transfer, said dairy cow numbers would increase to 1.3 million by 2018 and milk expansion by 43 per cent. The number of dairy farms would fall to 15,500, a 112 per cent reduction from current levels.
He said demand for land for energy crop production and dairy expansion would put pressure on the beef producing herd where there would be a 10 per cent reduction in suckler herds to 90,000.
The number of suckler beef cows would decline by 14,000 for each year to 2018 but the most effective producers could achieve a gross margin of €800 per hectare.
The national flock of 2.2 million ewes looked likely to increase but the number of flocks would decline to 32,232. It was also predicted that pig production would increase to 4.8 million head, Dr Kelly said.
Noel Culleton, head of crops, environment and land use, said the medium-term outlook for the cereal sector was positive and the area of bioenergy crops was expected to grow to 70,000 hectares to meet national and European Union commitments.
There would be about 1,000 full-time tillage farmers producing 60 per cent of the output by 2018 and a further 11,000 part-time farmers with tillage and energy crops, he said. Plantings of tillage and energy crops would increase by up to 46 per cent.
While environmental regulations would be a constraint on production, he said, the sector would contribute positively to the improvement of the environment and mitigate some of the problems caused by energy change.
“The growing of up to 70,000 hectares of energy crops to meet electricity and heat targets could mitigate up to 1.1 million tonnes of CO2 and the capacity of tillage and energy crops to better use manure and sludge will be increased,” he said.
The horticulture road map predicted major potential for development especially in mushrooms, fruit and vegetables, nursery stock and cut foliage. Farm-gate output would be up 15 per cent to €333 million and there would be 700 sustainable units.
The scientists predicted forestry plantings of more than 800,000 hectares, or 12 per cent of total land area, by 2018.